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A new model for 5-year risk of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Geriatrics.
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2011 (English)In: Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, ISSN 0168-8227, E-ISSN 1872-8227, Vol. 93, no 2, 276-284 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]


We assessed the association between risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in an observational study of type 2 diabetes patients from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.


A derivation sample of 24,288 patients, aged 30-74 years, 15.3% with previous CVD, baseline 2002, 2488 CVD events when followed for 5 years until 2007. A separate validation data set of 4906 patients, baseline 2003, 522 CVD events when followed for 4 years.


Adjusted hazard ratios at Cox regression for fatal/nonfatal CVD were: onset-age 1.59, diabetes duration 1.55, total-cholesterol-to-HDL-cholesterol ratio 1.20, HbA1c 1.12, systolic BP 1.09, BMI 1.07 (1 SD increase in natural log continuous variables); males 1.41, smoker 1.35, microalbuminuria 1.27, macroalbuminuria 1.53, atrial fibrillation 1.50, previous CVD 1.98 (all p<0.001 except BMI p=0.0018). All 12 variables were used to elaborate an equation for 5-year CVD risk in the derivation dataset: mean 5-year risk 11.9±8.4%. Calibration in the validation dataset was adequate: ratio predicted 4-year risk/observed rate 0.97. Discrimination was sufficient: C statistic 0.72, sensitivity 51% and specificity 78% for top quartile.


This CVD risk model from a large observational study of patients in routine care showed adequate calibration and discrimination, and can be useful for clinical practice.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 93, no 2, 276-284 p.
National Category
Cardiac and Cardiovascular Systems Endocrinology and Diabetes
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-165009DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2011.05.037ISI: 000293825400031PubMedID: 21719139OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-165009DiVA: diva2:471279
Available from: 2012-01-02 Created: 2012-01-02 Last updated: 2015-08-13Bibliographically approved

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