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Accuracy of Swedish property appraisers' forecasts of net operating income
Mid Sweden University, Centre for Research on Economic Relations, Department of Social Sciences, Sundsvall, Sweden.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for Housing and Urban Research.
Mid Sweden University, Centre for Research on Economic Relations, Department of Social Sciences, Sundsvall, Sweden.
2012 (English)In: Journal of Property Research, ISSN 0959-9916, E-ISSN 1466-4453, Vol. 29, no 2, 103-122 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study addresses how property appraisers forecast one important component of the commercial property valuation model: net operating income. We compare appraisers’ ex ante forecasts with corresponding ex post figures from company financial reports. The data are from the Swedish Property Index, 1998–2005, and comprise over 7000 observations. The findings indicate that the appraisers’ forecasts are somewhat forward looking and almost as accurate as those obtained using mechanical autoregressive models. However, the forecasts are biased, as appraisers systematically overestimate future net operating income. There was also evidence of decreasing accuracy over the study period.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. Vol. 29, no 2, 103-122 p.
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Social Sciences
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URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-165122DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2011.641997OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-165122DiVA: diva2:471869
Available from: 2012-01-03 Created: 2012-01-03 Last updated: 2017-12-08Bibliographically approved

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Söderberg, Bo

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