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Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations 2010-2035
University of Oslo.
Swedish National Defence College.
Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO.
2011 (English)In: Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction: 4th International Conference, SBP 2011, College Park, MD, USA, March 29-31, 2011. Proceedings / [ed] John Salerno, Shanchieh Jay Yang, Dana Nau, Sun-Ki Chai, Heidelberg: Springer, 2011, 325-332 p.Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

We simulate how a set of different UN policies for peace-keeping operations is likely to affect the global incidence of internal armed conflict. The simulation is based on a statistical model that estimates the efficacy of UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) in preventing the onset, escalation, continuation, and recurrence of internal armed conflict. The model takes into account a set of important conflict predictors for which we have projections up to 2035 from the UN and the IIASA. The estimates are based on a 1970–2008 cross-sectional dataset of changes between conflict levels and new data on PKO budgets and mandates. The simulations show a strong effect of PKOs on the global incidence of major conflicts, although restricted to operations with robust mandates. Extensive use of ‘transformational’ PKOs can reduce the global incidence of the most lethal conflicts with 65%.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Heidelberg: Springer, 2011. 325-332 p.
, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, ISSN 0302-9743 ; 6589
Keyword [en]
Armed conflict, Simulations, UN Peacekeeping operations, Conflict prevention, Statistical modeling, Demographic projections
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalization Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-166226DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0ISBN: 978-3-642-19655-3ISBN: 978-3-642-19656-0OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-166226DiVA: diva2:475693
Available from: 2012-01-11 Created: 2012-01-11 Last updated: 2015-06-11Bibliographically approved

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Hegre, HåvardHultman, Lisa
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalization Studies)

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