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Outbreaks of Tularemia in a Boreal Forest Region Depends on Mosquito Prevalence
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Biology, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Population and Conservation Biology.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Biology, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Population and Conservation Biology.
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2012 (English)In: Journal of Infectious Diseases, ISSN 0022-1899, E-ISSN 1537-6613, Vol. 205, no 2, 297-304 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background. We aimed to evaluate the potential association of mosquito prevalence in a boreal forest area with transmission of the bacterial disease tularemia to humans, and model the annual variation of disease using local weather data.

Methods. A prediction model for mosquito abundance was built using weather and mosquito catch data. Then a negative binomial regression model based on the predicted mosquito abundance and local weather data was built to predict annual numbers of humans contracting tularemia in Dalarna County, Sweden.

Results. Three hundred seventy humans were diagnosed with tularemia between 1981 and 2007, 94% of them during 7 summer outbreaks. Disease transmission was concentrated along rivers in the area. The predicted mosquito abundance was correlated (0.41, P < .05) with the annual number of human cases. The predicted mosquito peaks consistently preceded the median onset time of human tularemia (temporal correlation, 0.76; P < .05). Our final predictive model included 5 environmental variables and identified 6 of the 7 outbreaks.

Conclusions. This work suggests that a high prevalence of mosquitoes in late summer is a prerequisite for outbreaks of tularemia in a tularemia-endemic boreal forest area of Sweden and that environmental variables can be used as risk indicators.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. Vol. 205, no 2, 297-304 p.
National Category
Medical and Health Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-167159DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jir732ISI: 000298387900019OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-167159DiVA: diva2:487329
Available from: 2012-01-31 Created: 2012-01-23 Last updated: 2017-12-08Bibliographically approved

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Schäfer, Martina L.Lundström, Jan O.

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