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A flexible Markov-chain model for simulating demand side management strategies with applications to distributed photovoltaics
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Solid State Physics. (Built Environment Energy Systems Group (BEESG))
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Solid State Physics. (Built Environment Energy Systems Group (BEESG))
2012 (English)In: Proceedings of the World Renewable Energy Forum 2012, Denver, Colorado, USA, May 13-17, 2012, 2012, 1858-1865 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In this paper a stochastic model for load shifting was utilized for the purpose of investigating the potential for increased self-consumption of photovoltaic (PV) generation in households. We show the results in terms of power consumption, PV power production and solar fraction from a number of scenarios involving end-user flexibility on the order of a few percent. Simulations are performed on both an individual and an aggregate level. Results indicate that the solar fraction is only improved by a few percent both on an aggregate and individual level even for the most extreme scenarios of load shifting. The lack of substantial increase in solar fraction from imposed flexibility can partly be attributed to complementary energy use; when certain energy-demanding activities are downshifted in probability other activities are up-shifted. Another explanation for the lack of increased solar fraction is the total available fraction of flexible activities at a certain time.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. 1858-1865 p.
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Solid State Physics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-174619ISBN: 978-162276092-3 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-174619DiVA: diva2:527905
Conference
World Renewable Energy Forum, WREF 2012, Including World Renewable Energy Congress XII and Colorado Renewable Energy Society (CRES) Annual Conference, May 13-17, 2012, Denver, Colorado, USA
Available from: 2012-05-22 Created: 2012-05-22 Last updated: 2016-05-27Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Markov-chain modeling of energy users and electric vehicles: Applications to distributed photovoltaics
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Markov-chain modeling of energy users and electric vehicles: Applications to distributed photovoltaics
2012 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Technological improvements and falling prices on photovoltaic panels andelectric vehicles suggest that they might become more common in future households.The introduction of a photovoltaic system and an electric vehiclehas considerable impact on the energy balance of a household. This licentiate thesis investigates the power consumption- and productionpatterns associated with the photovoltaic (PV) electricity production,household electricity consumption and home charged plug-in electric vehicle(PEV) electricity consumption. This investigation is carried out on both an individual and aggregate household level. The methodology used in this thesis is interdisciplinary but the maincontributions are mathematical modeling and simulations of the three main components. Theoretical estimates of electricityconsumption were constructed from extensions to the Wid\'{e}n Markov-chain model for generating synthetichousehold electricity use patterns. The main research contribution in thisthesis is the development and analysis of two extensions of this Markov-chain model: (I) Electricity use from a home charged PEV,(II) Flexibility of end-user power use. These two extensions were used in studiesregarding the coincidence - in particular the level of self-consumption - between PV electricityproduction and household electricity use. PV electricity production was modeledfrom high resolution solar irradiance data from the Ångström laboratory.\\Results show that the home charged PEV load would increase the household loadconsiderably. It was also shown that the level of correlation between PEV load and PVelectricity production was low, but that to some extent the PEV load could help increasethe self-consumption of PV power, both on individual and aggregate household level.\\The modeling and simulations of end-user flexibility showed that the householdload profile could be altered to a certain degree. It was also shown thatcertain flexibility setup could improve the self-consumption of PV power production, more so than theintroduction of a PEV.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Uppsala universitet, 2012. 50 p.
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Solid State Physics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-195824 (URN)
Presentation
2012-12-10, Häggsalen, Ångströmlaboratoriet, Uppsala, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2013-02-27 Created: 2013-02-27 Last updated: 2013-02-27Bibliographically approved

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Munkhammar, JoakimWidén, Joakim

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