Naïve Point Estimation
2013 (English)In: Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory and Cognition, ISSN 0278-7393, E-ISSN 1939-1285, Vol. 39, no 3, 782-800 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
The capacity of short-term memory is a key constraint when people make online judgments requiringthem to rely on samples retrieved from memory (e.g., Dougherty & Hunter, 2003). In this article, theauthors compare 2 accounts of how people use knowledge of statistical distributions to make pointestimates: either by retrieving precomputed large-sample representations or by retrieving small samplesof similar observations post hoc at the time of judgment, as constrained by short-term memory capacity(the naı¨ve sampling model: Juslin, Winman, & Hansson, 2007). Results from four experiments supportthe predictions by the naı¨ve sampling model, including that participants sometimes guess values thatthey, when probed, demonstrably know have the lowest probability of occurring. Experiment 1 alsodemonstrated the operations of an unpredicted recognition-based inference. Computational modeling alsoincorporating this process demonstrated that the data from all 4 experiments were better predicted byassuming a post hoc sampling process constrained by short-term memory capacity than by assumingabstraction of large-sample representations of the distribution.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 39, no 3, 782-800 p.
point estimation, sampling model, intuitive statistics
Psychology (excluding Applied Psychology)
Research subject Psychology
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-183145DOI: 10.1037/a0029670ISI: 000318455900010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-183145DiVA: diva2:562034
FunderSwedish Research CouncilRiksbankens Jubileumsfond