Probabilities of monthly median chlorophyll-a concentrations in subarctic, temperate and subtropical lakes
2013 (English)In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, Vol. 41, 199-209 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
High concentrations of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) during summer are by definition a common problem in eutrophicated lakes. Several models have been designed to predict chl-a concentrations but are unable to estimate the probability of predicted concentrations or concentration spans during subsequent months. Two different methods were developed to compute the probabilities of obtaining a certain chl-a concentration. One method is built on discrete Markov chains and the other method on a direct relationship between median chl-a concentrations from two months. Lake managers may use these methods to detect and counteract the risk of high chl-a concentrations and algal blooms during coming months. Both methods were evaluated and applied along different scenarios to detect the probability to exceed chl-a concentration in different coming months. The procedure of computing probabilities is strictly based on general statistics which means that neither method is constrained for chl-a but can also be used for other variables. A user-friendly software application was developed to facilitate and extend the use of these two methods.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2013. Vol. 41, 199-209 p.
chlorophyll-a, predicting probability, markov chain, lake
chlorophyll-a, prediktion av sannolikheter, markovkedjor, sjöar
Research subject Earth Science with specialization in Environmental Analysis
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-194311DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.12.002ISI: 000315974500019OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-194311DiVA: diva2:604947