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Dynamic modeling of 90-day mortality in ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Medicinska och farmaceutiska vetenskapsområdet, centrumbildningar mm, UCR-Uppsala Clinical Research Center.
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2013 (English)In: American Heart Journal, ISSN 0002-8703, E-ISSN 1097-6744, Vol. 165, no 3, 354-+ p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Aims Dynamic risk models update the risk profile of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients over the acute period following the event and have implications to clinical practice and research. Methods and Results Multivariable survival models were developed in 5,745 STEMI patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) enrolled in the APEX-AMI trial to predict 90-day mortality from 4 clinically relevant times: baseline, 2 hours, 24 hours, and 96 hours. Culprit coronary thrombolysis in myocardial infarction flow grade, 30-minute post-PCI worst-lead ST-elevation residual, and in-hospital clinical events were considered in the models. The 90-day mortality was 4.7%; the cumulative proportion of mortality occurring within 2, 24, and 96 hours was 8%, 22%, and 40% respectively. Relative to the baseline risk factors, age and systolic blood pressure remained highly ranked in the post-baseline models. However, the relative importance of heart rate, Killip class, and creatinine declined, whereas markers of coronary reperfusion and in-hospital events (shock, congestive heart failure) became increasingly influential. The c-index increased from 0.819 at baseline to 0.847 at 96 hours. Over the forecasting periods, the proportion of "low-risk" (<1.1% 90-day mortality) patients increased from 20% to 49%. This approach derived from an unfolding series of models reveals the shifting levels of mortality risk from baseline to 96 hours. Conclusion This novel approach in STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI demonstrates the dynamic nature of risk over time and may prove useful in understanding risk and in clinical decision making.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 165, no 3, 354-+ p.
National Category
Medical and Health Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-197978DOI: 10.1016/j.ahj.2012.12.001ISI: 000315710500019OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-197978DiVA: diva2:615028
Available from: 2013-04-08 Created: 2013-04-08 Last updated: 2013-04-08Bibliographically approved

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