What is the link between temperature and Carbon Dioxide levels? A Granger Causality analysis based on ice core data
2014 (English)In: Journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology, ISSN 0177-798X, E-ISSN 1434-4483, Vol. 116, no 3-4, 537-548 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
We use statistical methods to analyze whether there exists long-term causality between temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. The analysis is based on a the Vostok Ice Core data from 400,000 to 6,000 years ago, extended by the EPICA Dome C data which go back to 800,000 years ago. At first, to make the data equidistant, we reconstruct it by linear interpolation. Then, using an approximation of a piecewise exponential function, we adjust for a deterministic trend. Finally, we employ the Granger causality test. We are able to strongly reject the null hypothesis that carbon dioxide concentration does not Granger cause temperature as well as the reverse hypothesis that temperature does not Granger cause carbon dioxide concentration.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 116, no 3-4, 537-548 p.
Other Social Sciences
Research subject Statistics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-202851DOI: 10.1007/s00704-013-0960-7ISI: 000335152500012OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-202851DiVA: diva2:634029