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Is it Time Bayes went Fishing?: Bayesian Probabilistic Reasoning in a Category Learning Task
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
2013 (English)In: Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society / [ed] M. Knauff, M. Pauen, N. Sebanz, I. Wachsmuth, Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society, Inc., 2013, 906-911 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

People have generally been considered poor at probabilistic reasoning, producing subjective probability estimates that far from accord to normative rules. Features of the typical probabilistic reasoning task, however, make strong conclusions difficult. The present study, therefore, combines research on probabilistic reasoning with research on category learning where participants learn base rates and likelihoods in a category-learning task. Later they produce estimates of posterior probability based on the learnt probabilities. The results show that our participants can produce subjective probability estimates that are well calibrated against the normative Bayesian probability and are sensitive to base rates. Further, they have accurate knowledge of both base rate and means of the categories encountered during learning. This indicates that under some conditions people might be better at probabilistic reaso

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society, Inc., 2013. 906-911 p.
Keyword [en]
Probabilistic reasoning, category learning, Bayes’ theorem, base rate
National Category
Psychology (excluding Applied Psychology)
Research subject
Psychology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-209393ISBN: 978-0-9768318-9-1 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-209393DiVA: diva2:657177
Conference
The 35th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, Berlin, Germany, July 31-August 3, 2013
Funder
Swedish Research Council
Available from: 2013-10-18 Created: 2013-10-18 Last updated: 2013-10-30Bibliographically approved

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Lindskog, MarcusWinman, AndersJuslin, Peter

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