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Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. (Global Energy Systems)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6379-7104
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. (Global Energy Systems)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. (Global Energy Systems)
China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
2014 (English)In: Philosophical Transactions. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering science, ISSN 1364-503X, E-ISSN 1471-2962, Vol. 372, no 2006, 0120448- p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oil field decline rates and depletion rates. These concepts are related, but not identical. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarises the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of oil field. A database of 880 post-peak fields is analysed to determine typical depletion levels, depletion rates, and decline rates. This demonstrates that the size of oil fields has a significant influence on decline and depletion rates, with generally high values for small fields and comparatively low values for larger fields. These empirical findings have important implications for oil supply forecasting.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 372, no 2006, 0120448- p.
Keyword [en]
depletion rate, decline rate, peak oil, field-by-field analysis, depletion level
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-211947DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0448ISI: 000332378500009OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-211947DiVA: diva2:670557
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STandUP for energy
Available from: 2013-12-03 Created: 2013-12-03 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved

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Höök, MikaelDavidsson, Simon

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