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Evaluation and update of Norwegian and Danish oil production forecasts and implications for Swedish oil import
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. (Global Energy Systems)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. (Global Energy Systems)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6379-7104
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. (Global Energy Systems)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. (Global Energy Systems)
2014 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 65, 333-345 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents an updated historic oil production analysis as well as an updated future oil production forecast for Norway and Denmark. Previous forecasts conducted by academic and official agencies using a variety of methodologies are contrasted and their accuracy examined. The bottom-up field-by-field methodology is found to be precise in the short-term, as it deviates by less than 1% from actual production. The impact of declining oil production in the North Sea on Sweden is explored as a case study. The historic and future trends regarding Swedish oil imports are presented and their vulnerability assessed using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 65, 333-345 p.
Keyword [en]
Decline curve analysis, Field-by-field analysis, Oil security, Energy security, Herfindahl-Hirschman index
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-221979DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.023ISI: 000331669100033OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-221979DiVA: diva2:710882
Available from: 2014-04-08 Created: 2014-04-07 Last updated: 2017-12-05Bibliographically approved

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Höök, MikaelGrandell, LeenaDavidsson, Simon

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