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The long-term hydrology of East Africa's water tower: statistical change detection in the watersheds of the Abbay Basin
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala Centre for Sustainable Development, CSD Uppsala.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. (Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6314-2124
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2014 (English)In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 14, no 1, 321-331 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Forty-five years (1960-2004) of hydrological data from 12 watersheds in the Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, were tested for possible trends over the entire time series and differences in medians (step-wise changes) between three sub-periods. The classification of the sub-periods was based on the major political changes in 1975 and 1991. Variables investigated were rainfall (P), total flow (Q(t)), high flow (Q(h)), low flow (Q(1)), low flow index (LFI) and run-off coefficient (C). Data were checked for outliers, errors and homogeneity. Trend was tested after serial and cross-correlation tests. The data for each variable were serially uncorrelated from 1 to 10 lag years. There were five globally significant trends out of 50 test cases and 36 significant step-wise changes out of 180 tests. The majority of the significant changes were watershed specific. Run-off coefficient was the single variable showing a consistently increasing trend and stood for ca. 25 % of the total significant trends and step-wise changes. Half of these changes occurred after 1991. We concluded that despite the land use policy changes in 1975 and 1991, as well as the long-term soil degradation, the hydrological regime was quite stable over the 45-year period, with the exception of an increase in the run-off coefficient in the latter part of the run-off record in some watersheds.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 14, no 1, 321-331 p.
Keyword [en]
Blue Nile, Ethiopia, Run-off coefficient, Step-wise change, Trend, Watershed
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Hydrology; Hydrology; Earth Science with specialization in Environmental Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-224156DOI: 10.1007/s10113-013-0491-xISI: 000333261900026OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-224156DiVA: diva2:715632
Available from: 2014-05-05 Created: 2014-05-05 Last updated: 2017-12-05

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Seibert, J.Bishop, Kevin

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