uu.seUppsala University Publications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Change is Coming: A Survival Analysis of the Causes of Regime Change
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics. (Statfinder)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics. (Statfinder)
2014 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This paper analyzes the effect of political and economic factors on the risk of regime change in countries between 1975 and 2010, using survival analysis with time-dependent covariates. The findings show that negative economic growth increases the risk of regime change in the following year, and that a higher level of GDP per Capita, as well as international trade, has an inhibiting effect on the risk of regime change in democracies. The results also show that countries with young regimes are more likely to experience a regime change, and that countries with a long tradition of democratic governance suffer virtually no risk of experiencing a regime failure. These findings lend heavy support to the democratic consolidation theory, while giving mixed support to other theories of economic and political causes of regime change. The more generalized approach to regime change used in this paper provides a stepping stone for opening up a greater understanding of the mechanisms which cause regime change in all types of governments, and regardless of the direction of the change in relation to democracy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. , 54 p.
Keyword [en]
Regime change, democratization, democratic consolidation, authoritarian regimes, survival analysis, Cox regression
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-226106OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-226106DiVA: diva2:723937
Subject / course
Statistics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2014-06-13 Created: 2014-06-11 Last updated: 2014-06-13Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

Change is Coming(849 kB)181 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 849 kBChecksum SHA-512
24a4ea6bb79975b56a0a6f4f771dafdc3e19921c3632efa9cf17151ed85bc8f778c7cce11b7e7dbad7005f30ec78a1ef6751f3fe84bbf3c69b5f6052f62b63e6
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Randahl, DavidVildö, Lovisa
By organisation
Department of Statistics
Probability Theory and StatisticsPolitical Science

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 181 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 696 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf