Does looking at Vehicle Currency Volatilities and their Effects on Sectoral Trade Flows solve the Exchange Rate Volatility Puzzle ? : An Empirical Analysis of the Swedish Case
Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
In this paper the impact of the volatility of vehicle currencies- namely the US-Dollar and the Euro- on sectoral trade flows is investigated. It is hypothesized that vehicle currency volatilities have relatively more important effects in sectors that use vehicle currencies more frequently. However, this hypothesis finds no systematic support when investigating the Swedish case using an Error Correction Model for the different sectors of the one digit level of the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). The data that is used is monthly data for the time period January 2000 until December 2010 and the sample includes ten different trading partners. It is found that the long-run effects of vehicle currency volatilities are significant in a large amount of different cases with a greater number of positive signs. However, in the case of Swedish exports the sectors, in which vehicle currencies are expected to be used to a rather low degree, are associated with a high number of significant vehicle currency volatilities. Only the cases of exports of Crude Materials and imports of Beverages and Tobacco support the tested hypothesis. Vehicle currency volatility seems to be more important in trade with relatively less industrialized countries.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
vehicle currency volatility, exchange rate volatility, sectoral trade
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-226210OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-226210DiVA: diva2:724663
Borota Milicevic, Teodora, Forskare
Waldenström, Daniel, Gästprofessor