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Evaluation and Implementation of Traceable Uncertainty for Threat Evaluation
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Information Technology, Division of Systems and Control.
2014 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Threat evaluation is used in various applications to find threatening objects or situations and neutralize them before they cause any damage. To make the threat evaluation as user-friendly as possible, it is important to know where the uncertainties are. The method Traceable Uncertainty can make the threat evaluation process more transparent and hopefully easier to rely on. Traceable Uncertainty is used when different sources of information are combined to find support for the decision making process. The uncertainty of the current information is measured before and after the combination. If the magnitude of uncertainty has changed more than a threshold, a new branch will be created which excludes the new information from the combination of evidence. Traceable Uncertainty has never been tested on any realistic scenario to investigate whether it is possible to implement the method on a large scale system. The hypothesis of this thesis is that Traceable Uncertainty can be used on large scale systems if its threshold parameter is tuned in the right way. Different threshold values were tested when recorded radar data were analyzed for threatening targets. Experiments combining random generated evidence were also analyzed for different threshold values. The results showed that a threshold value in the range [0.15, 0.25] generated a satisfying amount of interpretations that were not too similar to eachother. The results could also be filtered to take away unnecessary interpretations. This shows that in this aspect and for this data set, Traceable Uncertainty can be used on large scale systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. , 42 p.
UPTEC F, ISSN 1401-5757 ; 14030
Keyword [en]
Information Fusion, Traceable Uncertainty, Threat Evaluation, Evidence Theory
National Category
Information Systems
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-228106OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-228106DiVA: diva2:732752
External cooperation
Saab AB
Subject / course
Computer Systems Sciences
Educational program
Master Programme in Engineering Physics
Available from: 2014-08-04 Created: 2014-07-03 Last updated: 2014-08-04Bibliographically approved

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