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Forecasting commodities: - A study of methods, interests and preception
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Business Studies.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Business Studies.
2014 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This study aims to investigate reasons for variation in accuracy between different forecast methods by studying the choice of methods, learning processes, biases and opinions within the firms using them; enabling us to provide recommendations of how to improve accuracy within each forecast method. Eleven Swedish and international companies that are regularly forecasting commodity price-levels have been interviewed. Since there is a cultural aspect to the development of forecast methods; the authors have chosen to conduct a qualitative study, using a semi-structured interview technique that enables us to illustrate company-specific determinants. The results show that choice of methods, learning processes, biases and opinions all have potentially substantial implications on the accuracy achieved. The phenomena’s individual implication on accuracy varies amongst method-group.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. , 48 p.
Keyword [en]
Forecasting, method, interest, perception, accuracy, commodities, decision-making, decision making, knowledge creation, risk management, hedging, strategic purchasing, budgeting
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-230411OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-230411DiVA: diva2:740452
External cooperation
Multiple
Subject / course
Business Studies
Educational program
Master Programme in Business and Management
Supervisors
Available from: 2014-08-27 Created: 2014-08-25 Last updated: 2014-08-27Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf