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A Stochastic Model for Virus Growth in a Cell Population
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics.
2014 (English)In: Journal of Applied Probability, ISSN 0021-9002, E-ISSN 1475-6072, Vol. 51, no 3, 599-612 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this work we introduce a stochastic model for the spread of a virus in a cell population where the virus has two ways of spreading: either by allowing its host cell to live and duplicate, or by multiplying in large numbers within the host cell, causing the host cell to burst and thereby let the virus enter new uninfected cells. The model is a kind of interacting Markov branching process. We focus in particular on the probability that the virus population survives and how this depends on a certain parameter A which quantifies the 'aggressiveness' of the virus. Our main goal is to determine the optimal balance between aggressive growth and long-term success. Our analysis shows that the optimal strategy of the virus (in terms of survival) is obtained when the virus has no effect on the host cell's life cycle, corresponding to lambda = 0. This is in agreement with experimental data about real viruses.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 51, no 3, 599-612 p.
Keyword [en]
Branching process, interacting branching process, model for virus growth
National Category
Mathematics Medical Genetics
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-235184ISI: 000342035400001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-235184DiVA: diva2:759467
Available from: 2014-10-30 Created: 2014-10-29 Last updated: 2014-10-30Bibliographically approved

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Björnberg, Jakob E.
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