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A Dynamical Systems Approach to Modeling Human Development
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics.
2014 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By tting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We show that reduction in child mortality is best predicted by the level of GDP in a country over the preceding 5 years. Fertility rate decreases when current or predicted child mortality is low, and is weakly dependent on female education and economic growth. As fertility drops, GDP increases producing a cycle that drives the demographic transition.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. , 42 p.
Series
Working paper / Department of Economics, Uppsala University (Online), ISSN 1653-6975 ; 2014:9
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-235541OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-235541DiVA: diva2:761052
Available from: 2014-11-05 Created: 2014-11-05 Last updated: 2015-02-05Bibliographically approved

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fulltext(842 kB)347 downloads
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Ranganathan, ShyamBali Swain, RanjulaSumpter, David J.T

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf