A Dynamical Systems Approach to Modeling Human Development
2014 (English)Report (Other academic)
A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By tting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We show that reduction in child mortality is best predicted by the level of GDP in a country over the preceding 5 years. Fertility rate decreases when current or predicted child mortality is low, and is weakly dependent on female education and economic growth. As fertility drops, GDP increases producing a cycle that drives the demographic transition.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. , 42 p.
Working paper / Department of Economics, Uppsala University (Online), ISSN 1653-6975 ; 2014:9
Research subject Economics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-235541OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-235541DiVA: diva2:761052