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Offshore oil: Investigating production parameters of fields of varying size, location and water depth
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. (Globala Energisystem)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. (Globala Energisystem)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. (Globala Energisystem)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6379-7104
2015 (English)In: Fuel, ISSN 0016-2361, E-ISSN 1873-7153, Vol. 139, p. 430-440Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper derives empirical estimates of field depletion level, depletion rate, decline rate and characteristic time intervals in offshore oil production based on a global field-by-field database containing 603 offshore oil fields. Statistical distributions as well as arithmetic and weighted averages of production parameters are derived for different categories of fields specified by size, location and water depth. A significant tendency of small fields having higher depletion and decline rates is found. Similarly, OECD countries generally have higher rates compared to non-OECD countries. Trends related to water depth are not clearly distinguishable and require additional investigation of time related aspects. Resulting spreads in derived parameter estimates are found to be well described by positively skewed probability distributions. Also, in line with theory, a strong correlation between depletion and decline rate is found. According to the study, the net share of global offshore production from smaller and deeper fields is increasing. A continuation of these trends would likely have implications for future aggregate offshore production behaviour, most notably, increasing global aggregate decline rates.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 139, p. 430-440
Keywords [en]
Offshore, Oil production, Depletion level, Depletion rate, Decline rate
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Natural Resources and Sustainable Development
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-240057DOI: 10.1016/j.fuel.2014.09.012ISI: 000345434700053OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-240057DiVA, id: diva2:777069
Available from: 2015-01-08 Created: 2015-01-05 Last updated: 2018-05-16
In thesis
1. World oil supply and unconventional resources: Bottom-up perspectives on tight oil production
Open this publication in new window or tab >>World oil supply and unconventional resources: Bottom-up perspectives on tight oil production
2018 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Oil is the world’s largest primary energy source. It dominates the transportation sector which underpins the world economy. Yet, oil is a nonrenewable resource, destined not to last forever. In the mid-2000s global conventional oil production stagnated, leading to rising oil prices and fears of permanent oil scarcity. These fears, together with the high prices, receded with the unforeseen emergence of a new supply source: tight oil.

This licentiate thesis investigates unconventional tight oil production and its impacts on world oil supply in terms of resource availability and oil market dynamics, and in turn briefly discusses some possible wider economic, political and environmental implications of these impacts. The thesis is based on three papers. The first investigates the usefulness of bottom-up modelling by a retrospective study of past oil projections. The second looks at how unconventional tight oil production can be modelled on the well level using decline curve analysis. The third derives typical production parameters for conventional offshore oil fields, a growing segment of conventional production and a useful comparison to tight oil.

The results show that tight oil production has increased resource availability significantly, as well as introduced a fast responding marginal supply source operating on market principles rather than political ones. The emergence of tight oil production has altered OPEC’s strategic options and led to a period of lower and less volatile oil prices. However, this condition of world oil supply can only last as long as the unconventional resource base allows, and, at the same time, total fossil fuel consumption will have to fall to limit climate change. It is concluded that this breathing space with lower oil prices could be used as an opportunity to develop and implement policy for an efficient managed decline of global oil use in order to achieve the dual goals of increased human economic welfare and limited climate change, and in the process preempt any future oil supply shortage. Unconventional tight oil production can both help and hinder in this endeavor. Accurate models and analyses of oil production dynamics and impacts are therefore crucial when maneuvering towards this preferred future.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Department of Earth Sciences, 2018. p. 29
Keywords
oil supply, oil production, unconventional resources, tight oil, shale oil, bottom-up model, projections
National Category
Energy Systems Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Natural Resources and Sustainable Development
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-350864 (URN)
Presentation
2018-06-14, Norrland, Geocentrum, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, 14:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2014-5246
Available from: 2018-05-30 Created: 2018-05-16 Last updated: 2018-05-31Bibliographically approved

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Wachtmeister, HenrikHöök, Mikael

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