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The More the Merrier?: A Study Measuring Relative Efficiency of Two Prediction Markets
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
2015 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Our aim of this paper was to create a method for comparing the overall relative efficiency of a prediction market for the English football league Premier League and a prediction market for the Swedish football league Allsvenskan. The purpose of this was to see how the overall turnover of a prediction market affects the efficiency of it. We conclude that while the implied probability of the two markets on average corresponds well to the win frequency, the Premier League prediction market has statistically significant lower variation than Allsvenskan.

The method we created can also be used to test the relative prediction accuracy of any two prediction markets/bookmakers given enough observations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. , 25 p.
Keyword [en]
prediction markets, football, betfair
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-242132OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-242132DiVA: diva2:782454
Subject / course
Statistics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2015-02-06 Created: 2015-01-21 Last updated: 2015-02-06Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association
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  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf