Simulating dispersed photovoltaic power generation using a bimodal mixture model of the clear-sky index
2015 (English)Conference paper (Refereed)
Improved probability distribution models for power generation are useful e.g. forprobabilistic power flow simulations. This paper presents a distribution modelfor photovoltaic (PV) power generation based on the clear-sky index.With the use of minute-resolution data on globalhorizontal irradiation (GHI) we fit unimodal normal,bimodal normal and trimodal normal mixture distributionfamilies to the clear-sky index. Based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) teststhe best fit distribution family consisting of a bimodal normal distribution isthen used for estimating an aggregate clear-sky index for multipledispersed locations that are assumed to be uncorrelated in terms of sky clearness.For five or more locations the aggregate clear-sky indexfollows a normal distribution due to the central limit theorem.Models for solar radiation on tilted planes and PV power generation areapplied to the clear-sky index to generate probability distributions for anarbitrary PV system.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Engineering and Technology
Research subject Engineering Science
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-242439OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-242439DiVA: diva2:783458
EU PVSEC - 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition, 14-18 September, 2016, Hamburg, Germany