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Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
2015 (English)In: Cognition, ISSN 0010-0277, E-ISSN 1873-7838, Vol. 138, p. 1-9Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants’ psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people’s genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 138, p. 1-9
National Category
Psychology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-246173DOI: 10.1016/j.cognition.2015.01.014ISI: 000352173400001PubMedID: 25704578OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-246173DiVA, id: diva2:792165
Available from: 2015-03-03 Created: 2015-03-03 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved

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Millroth, PhilipJuslin, Peter

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