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Farming or Fighting?: Agricultural Price Shocks and Civil War in Africa
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
2015 (English)In: World Development, ISSN 0305-750X, E-ISSN 1873-5991, Vol. 67, 525-534 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article links lower economic returns in the labor-intensive agricultural sector to a higher risk of armed conflict at the local level. It argues that income shocks, followed by rising unemployment and lower wages in the rural economy, facilitate rebel recruitment and strengthen civilian support for rebel movements. Focusing on Africa, the article introduces a location-specific measure of changes to the value of local agricultural output by combining sub-national crop production maps with data on movements in global agricultural prices. The results show that negative changes to the local agricultural price index significantly and substantially increase the risk of violent events.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 67, 525-534 p.
Keyword [en]
economic shocks, income shocks, agricultural prices, civil war, armed conflict
National Category
Other Social Sciences Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalization Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-247501DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.10.032ISI: 000348620000037OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-247501DiVA: diva2:796440
Available from: 2015-03-19 Created: 2015-03-19 Last updated: 2016-02-02

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Fjelde, Hanne
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