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Forecast of the Swedish/German balance of trade:: A comparison study
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
2015 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

The aim of this study is to produce a forecast for the trade balance between Sweden and Germany for each month in 2014, and evaluate the accuracy of the predicted values. The study focuses on three methods; multiple regression, exponential smoothing and ARIMA, which are basic methods in time series analysis and forecasting. The conclusions we can draw from the results are that exponential smoothing is the most robust method in predicting the balance of trade, with respect to the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. , 26 p.
Keyword [en]
multiple regression, exponential smoothing, ARIMA
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-254882OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-254882DiVA: diva2:820192
Subject / course
Statistics
Educational program
Freestanding course
Supervisors
Available from: 2015-06-18 Created: 2015-06-11 Last updated: 2015-06-18Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
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  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
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Output format
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