Styrs prisbildningen på bostadsmarknaden av den långt bundna eller den rörliga räntan?
Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
This thesis examines the effect long -term versus short-term mortgage rates have on housing prices in Sweden, in order to shed some light on the possible shortsightedness among house buyers. According to economic theory, house prices should reflect the long-term mortgage rate as it contains information and predictions about future costs of lending, inflation and other macro- and micro level cost determining factors. It is suggested that rational buyers estimate the real value of houses as the present value of all future transactions –including cost of capital. Should the short-term mortgage rate be a more important determinant of the price, the financial system and distribution of wealth could be set out of order, as the short-term rate fluctuates more dramatically than the long-term rates.
As is shown in the thesis, the long-term rate appears to have a greater negative impact on house prices, but after controlling for variables such as average income in the regression, there is no statistical significant proof that long term rate affects prices negatively. However in the corresponding analysis, the short-term rate proves to be significant in explaining the prices even after controlling for average income, numbers of sold houses and population density. The results could be misleading and arise because of limited possibilities to control for all potentially confounding factors such as inflation and the economic cycle or time-lag disturbance. If housing prices do not depend on expected costs of living but speculations, the market could be threatened by the burst of a price bubble.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Bolån, räntor, bostadspriser, småhusmarknaden
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-255159OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-255159DiVA: diva2:821246
Elinder, Mikael, Biträdande lektor
Guvå, Tomas, Universitetslektor