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Hydrological projections under climate change in the near future by RegCM4 in Southern Africa using a large-scale hydrological model
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
2015 (English)In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 528, 1-16 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study aims to provide model estimates of changes in hydrological elements, such as EvapoTranspiration (ET) and runoff, in Southern Africa in the near future until 2029. The climate change scenarios are projected by a high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM), RegCM4, which is the latest version of this model developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP). The hydrological projections are performed by using a large-scale hydrological model (WASMOD-D), which has been tested and customized on this region prior to this study. The results reveal that (1) the projected temperature shows an increasing tendency over Southern Africa in the near future, especially eastward of 25 degrees E, while the precipitation changes are varying between different months and sub-regions; (2) an increase in runoff (and ET) was found in eastern part of Southern Africa, i.e. Southern Mozambique and Malawi, while a decrease was estimated across the driest region in a wide area encompassing Kalahari Desert, Namibia, southwest of South Africa and Angola; (3) the strongest climate change signals are found over humid tropical areas, i.e. north of Angola and Malawi and south of Dem Rep of Congo; and (4) large spatial and temporal variability of climate change signals is found in the near future over Southern Africa. This study presents the main results of work-package 2 (WP2) of the 'Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change in Sub-equatorial Africa (SoCoCA)' project, which is funded by the Research Council of Norway.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 528, 1-16 p.
Keyword [en]
Large-scale hydrological model, Climate change, RegCM4, Southern Africa, Near future
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources Climate Research
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-261225DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.028ISI: 000358968200001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-261225DiVA: diva2:852146
Available from: 2015-09-08 Created: 2015-08-31 Last updated: 2015-09-08Bibliographically approved

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