Confidence enhanced performance? – The causal effects of success on future performance in professional golftournaments
2015 (English)In: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, ISSN 0167-2681, E-ISSN 1879-1751, Vol. 117, 281-295 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
This paper provides field evidence on the causal impact of past successes on future performances. Since persistence in success or failure is likely to be linked through, potentially time-varying, ability it is intrinsically difficult to identify the causal effect of succeeding on the probability of performing well in the future. We therefore employ a regression discontinuity design on data from professional golf tournaments exploiting that almost equally skilled players are separated into successes and failures half-way into the tournaments (the “cut”). We show that players who (marginally) succeeded in making the cut substantially increased their performance in subsequent tournaments relative to players who (marginally) failed to make the cut. This success-effect is substantially larger when the subsequent (outcome) tournament involves more prize money. The results therefore suggest that past successes provide an important prerequisite when performing high-stakes tasks.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 117, 281-295 p.
Confidence; Success; Performance; Hot hand; Regression discontinuity design; Golf
Research subject Economics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-263248DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2015.06.020ISI: 000361578700019OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-263248DiVA: diva2:857517