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Confidence enhanced performance? – The causal effects of success on future performance in professional golftournaments
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. IFAU.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5682-9940
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
2015 (English)In: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, ISSN 0167-2681, E-ISSN 1879-1751, Vol. 117, 281-295 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper provides field evidence on the causal impact of past successes on future performances. Since persistence in success or failure is likely to be linked through, potentially time-varying, ability it is intrinsically difficult to identify the causal effect of succeeding on the probability of performing well in the future. We therefore employ a regression discontinuity design on data from professional golf tournaments exploiting that almost equally skilled players are separated into successes and failures half-way into the tournaments (the “cut”). We show that players who (marginally) succeeded in making the cut substantially increased their performance in subsequent tournaments relative to players who (marginally) failed to make the cut. This success-effect is substantially larger when the subsequent (outcome) tournament involves more prize money. The results therefore suggest that past successes provide an important prerequisite when performing high-stakes tasks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 117, 281-295 p.
Keyword [en]
Confidence; Success; Performance; Hot hand; Regression discontinuity design; Golf
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-263248DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2015.06.020ISI: 000361578700019OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-263248DiVA: diva2:857517
Available from: 2015-09-29 Created: 2015-09-29 Last updated: 2017-12-01Bibliographically approved

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Rosenqvist, OlofNordström, Oskar Skans

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