Do Bettors Correctly Perceive Odds?: Three Studies of How Bettors Interpret Betting Odds as Probabilistic Information
2015 (English)In: Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, ISSN 0894-3257, E-ISSN 1099-0771, Vol. 28, no 4, 331-346 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
This paper reports on three studies investigating how accurately bettors (=people who regularly bet on sports events) interpret the probabilistic information implied by betting odds. All studies were based on data collected by web surveys prompting a total of 186 experienced bettors to convert sets of representative odds into frequency judgments. Bayesian statistical methods were used to analyze the data. From the results, the following conclusions were made: (i) On the whole, the bettors produced well-calibrated judgments, indicating that they have realistic perceptions of odds. (ii) Bettors were unable to consciously adjust judgments for different margins. (iii) Although their interval judgments often covered the estimates implied by the odds, the bettors tended to overestimate the variation of expected profitable bets between months. The results are consistent with prior research showing that people tend to make accurate probability judgments when faced with tasks characterized by constant and clear feedback.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 28, no 4, 331-346 p.
betting, Bayesian data analyses, calibration, odds, probability judgments, probabilistic information
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-264608DOI: 10.1002/bdm.1851ISI: 000361307800003OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-264608DiVA: diva2:865301
FunderSwedish Research Council, 421-2009-1441