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Development and validation of a wide-area model of hourly aggregate solar power generation
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Solid State Physics. (Built Environment Energy Systems Group)ORCID iD: 1-6586-4932
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Solid State Physics. (Built Environment Energy Systems Group)
2016 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 102, 559-566 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The impact of photovoltaics (PV) on the power system becomes increasingly important to study as the penetration of PV has increased rapidly over the last decade. A physical model for aggregated PV generation has been developed for the Swedish spot market areas. Information about PV systems within the Swedish electricity certificate system and irradiance data from the meteorological model STRÅNG were used as inputs. The model was trained and validated against production data reported to the Swedish transmission system operator. Our model shows high correlation (0.95-0.99) to reported historical production data. However, it overestimates extreme 1h ramp rates, which are -20% and 22% for down- and up-ramps respectively, compared to -13% and 14% for the reported data. Furthermore a weighting function was developed, which takes demography, available solar irradiance and today's PV deployment into account, to model likely deployment in a Swedish high penetration scenario, where PV covers 6% of the total annual power demand. The difference in extreme 1 and 4 hour step changes before and after introducing PV is small. The model could thus be used with confidence to model the impact on the power system for future scenarios of high PV penetration.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 102, 559-566 p.
Keyword [en]
PV power; Step changes; Solar variability; Physical model
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-265450DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.02.085ISI: 000375889400050OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-265450DiVA: diva2:865702
Funder
StandUp
Available from: 2015-10-29 Created: 2015-10-29 Last updated: 2017-12-01Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Solar Variability Assessment and Grid Integration: Methodology Development and Case Studies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Solar Variability Assessment and Grid Integration: Methodology Development and Case Studies
2015 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

During the 21st century there has been a tremendous increase in grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) capacity globally, due to falling prices and introduction of economic incentives. PV systems are in most cases small-scale, installed on residential dwellings, which means that the power production is widely distributed and close to the end-user of electricity. In this licentiate thesis the distributed PV in the built environment is studied. A methodology for assessing short-term (sub-minute) solar variability was developed, which in the continuation of this PhD project could be used to study the aggregated impact on the local distribution grid from dispersed PV systems. In order to identify potential locations for PV systems in a future scenario, methodology was developed to assess the rooftop topography on both local level using LiDAR data and nationally through building statistics. Impacts on the distribution grid were investigated through a case study on a rural municipality in Sweden. It was found that the hosting capacity, i.e. the amount of PV power generation that can be integrated in the grid without exceeding certain power quality measures, is high, at least 30%. However, the hosting capacity on transmission level needs further investigation. As a first step a methodology was developed in order to model scenarios for hourly solar power generation, aggregated over wide areas, here applied to the whole Swedish power system. The model showed high correlation compared to PV power production reported to the Swedish transmission system operator (TSO). Furthermore, it was used to model scenarios of high PV penetration in Sweden, which give some indications on the impact on the power system, in terms of higher frequency of extreme ramps.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Uppsala University, Department of Engineering Sciences, 2015. 55 p.
Keyword
Solar variability, Photovoltaics, Grid integration, GIS, Distributed generation
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Engineering Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-265451 (URN)
Presentation
2015-11-25, ITC 1111, Lägerhyddsvägen 1, Uppsala, 14:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
StandUp
Available from: 2016-01-12 Created: 2015-10-29 Last updated: 2016-01-12Bibliographically approved
2. Solar Variability Assessment in the Built Environment: Model Development and Application to Grid Integration
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Solar Variability Assessment in the Built Environment: Model Development and Application to Grid Integration
2017 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Alternative title[sv]
Variationer i Solelgenerering i den Byggda Miljön : Modellutveckling och Integration i Elnätet
Abstract [en]

During the 21st century there has been a rapid increase in grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) capacity globally, due to falling system component prices and introduction of various economic incentives. To a large extent, PV systems are installed on buildings, which means they are widely distributed and located close to the power consumer, in contrast to conventional power plants. The intermittency of solar irradiance poses challenges to the integration of PV, which may be mitigated if properly assessing the solar resource. In this thesis, methods have been developed for solar variability and resource assessment in the built environment on both national and local level, and have been applied to grid integration studies. On national level, a method based on building statistics was developed that reproduces the hourly PV power generation in Sweden with high accuracy; correlation between simulated and real power generation for 2012 and 2013 were 0.97 and 0.99, respectively. The model was applied in scenarios of high penetration of intermittent renewable energy (IRE) in the Nordic synchronous power system, in combination with similar models for wind, wave and tidal power. A mix of the IRE resources was sought to minimise the variability in net load (i.e., load minus IRE, nuclear and thermal power). The study showed that a fully renewable Nordic power system is possible if hydropower operation is properly planned for. However, the contribution from PV power would only be 2-3% of the total power demand, due to strong diurnal and seasonal variability. On local level, a model-driven solar resource assessment method was developed based on low-resolution LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data. It was shown to improve the representation of buildings, i.e., roof shape, tilt and azimuth, over raster-based methods, i.e., digital surface models (DSM), which use the same LiDAR data. Furthermore, the new method can provide time-resolved data in contrast to traditional solar maps, and can thus be used as a powerful tool when studying the integration of high penetrations of PV in the distribution grid. In conclusion, the developed methods fill important gaps in our ability to plan for a fully renewable power system.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2017. 92 p.
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 1598
Keyword
Solar Variability, Photovoltaics, Grid Integration, Distributed Generation, LiDAR, GIS
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Engineering Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-332714 (URN)978-91-513-0149-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2017-12-21, Häggsalen, Lägerhyddsvägen 1, Uppsala, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2017-11-29 Created: 2017-11-01 Last updated: 2017-11-29

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Lingfors, DavidWidén, Joakim

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