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Scenarios and time series of future wind power production in Sweden
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Electricity.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. (Meteorologi)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Electricity.
2015 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The introduction of large amounts of wind power is a challenge for the operation of the power system. In order to facilitate future studies of the effects of significantly higher penetration levels, scenarios and accompanying time series of hourly wind power production in Sweden were developed. The annual production in the scenarios range from 20 to 70 TWh and the time series span the period 1979 to 2014. The model for hourly wind power production was validated with historical measurements and is shown to give a small error (MAE below 3%) and a good match of the statistical distributions of hourly power and step changes thereof. A statistical model for simulation of intrahourly fluctuations (5 and 15 minutes temporal resolution) was also developed. An important conclusion is that the normalised variability will be reduced in the future, mainly because of higher capacity factors and an increased share of offshore wind power.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. , 86 p.
Series
Energiforsk report, 2015:141
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-268805ISBN: 978-91-7673-141-3 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-268805DiVA: diva2:881105
Available from: 2015-12-09 Created: 2015-12-09 Last updated: 2017-01-25Bibliographically approved

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fulltext(4267 kB)365 downloads
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Olauson, JonBergström, HansBergkvist, Mikael

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf