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Sequencing the Peace How the Order of Peace Agreement Implementation Can Reduce the Destabilizing Effects of Post-accord Elections
Univ Notre Dame, Kroc Inst Int Peace Studies, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Univ Notre Dame, Kroc Inst Int Peace Studies, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5835-0618
Univ Notre Dame, Kroc Inst Int Peace Studies, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA.
2017 (English)In: Journal of Conflict Resolution, ISSN 0022-0027, E-ISSN 1552-8766, Vol. 61, no 1, 4-28 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
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Abstract [en]

Once a set of civil war actors reach a final peace agreement, a number of different implementation sequences are possible as the negotiated provisions are put into practice. We focus on a key but threatening stepping stone in the post-accord period-the holding of the first post-accord election-which has the capacity to be a stabilizing or destabilizing force. We identify effective accommodation provisions that civil war actors can negotiate and implement before the first post-accord election to reduce the chances of renewed violence. Utilizing new longitudinal data on the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements between 1989 and 2012 and a series of survival models, we find that if the first post-accord election is preceded by the implementation of accommodation measures, elections can have a peace-promoting effect. However, in the absence of preelection accommodation measures, elections are much more likely to be followed by peace failure.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. Vol. 61, no 1, 4-28 p.
Keyword [en]
civil war, peace agreement, implementation, accommodation, demobilization, bargaining, sequencing, recurrence
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-273666DOI: 10.1177/0022002715576573ISI: 000392882300002OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-273666DiVA: diva2:894870
Available from: 2016-01-16 Created: 2016-01-16 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved

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Melander, Erik

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