Forecasting Consumption in Sweden: Consumer Confidence in a Forecasting Horserace
Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Private consumption expenditure accounts for roughly half of the annual GDP inSweden. Consumption forecasts are therefore important to policymakers. The paperconsists of a comparison between two models in a forecasting horserace. One modelforecast consumption only using the most recent value and the historical trend. Inthe second model, survey variables from the consumer confidence survey are added.The aim of this study is to determine if data on consumer confidence can increaseforecasting power when forecasting consumption.The finding from this paper is that variables from the consumer confidence surveyperformed by the National Institute of Economic Research on Swedish respondents,can add predictive power when forecasting consumption.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Consumer confidence, survey data, forecasting horserace
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-275752OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-275752DiVA: diva2:900880
Lyhagen, Johan, Professor
Bengtsson, Niklas, Biträdande Universitetslektor