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What is the link between temperature and Carbon Dioxide levels? A Granger Causality analysis based on ice core data.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics and Statistics.
University of Neuchatel.
2014 (English)In: Journal of theoretical and applied climatology, ISSN 0177-798X, Vol. 116, 537-548 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We use statistical methods to analyze whetherthere exists long-term causality between temperature andcarbon dioxide concentration. The analysis is based on athe Vostok Ice Core data from 400,000 to 6,000 yearsago, extended by the EPICA Dome C data which go backto 800,000 years ago. At first, to make the data equidis-tant, we reconstruct it by linear interpolation. Then, usingan approximation of a piecewise exponential function, weadjust for a deterministic trend. Finally, we employ theGranger causality test. We are able to strongly reject thenull hypothesis that carbon dioxide concentration does notGranger cause temperature as well as the reverse hypothe-sis that temperature does not Granger cause carbon dioxide concentration.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2014. Vol. 116, 537-548 p.
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-293556DOI: DOI 10.1007/s00704-013-0960-7OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-293556DiVA: diva2:927956
Available from: 2016-05-13 Created: 2016-05-13 Last updated: 2017-02-20

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