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What is the link between temperature and Carbon Dioxide levels? A Granger Causality analysis based on ice core data.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics.
University of Neuchatel.
2014 (English)In: Journal of theoretical and applied climatology, ISSN 0177-798X, Vol. 116, 537-548 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We use statistical methods to analyze whetherthere exists long-term causality between temperature andcarbon dioxide concentration. The analysis is based on athe Vostok Ice Core data from 400,000 to 6,000 yearsago, extended by the EPICA Dome C data which go backto 800,000 years ago. At first, to make the data equidis-tant, we reconstruct it by linear interpolation. Then, usingan approximation of a piecewise exponential function, weadjust for a deterministic trend. Finally, we employ theGranger causality test. We are able to strongly reject thenull hypothesis that carbon dioxide concentration does notGranger cause temperature as well as the reverse hypothe-sis that temperature does not Granger cause carbon dioxide concentration.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2014. Vol. 116, 537-548 p.
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-293556DOI: DOI 10.1007/s00704-013-0960-7OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-293556DiVA: diva2:927956
Available from: 2016-05-13 Created: 2016-05-13 Last updated: 2016-05-13

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