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The Effects of Terrorist Attacks on Electoral Outcomes
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
2016 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This paper uses a large-n dataset to investigate how and under what circumstances terrorist attacks affect electoral outcomes. Three main theoretical frameworks are considered, the rally effect framework, the electoral accountability framework, and the conservative shift framework. The findings of the statistical analysis show that terrorist attacks in the twelve months before an election are associated with a higher likelihood of an electoral defeat for the incumbent government, and that this effect is moderated through the ideological orientation of the incumbent government party as well as the main opposition party. This indicates that voters do hold the government accountable for terrorist attacks, but also gives some mixed support to the theory that terrorist attacks cause a conservative shift among voters. The study finds no statistical support for the theory that terrorist attacks trigger rally events which positively affect the likelihood of re-election by the incumbent government.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. , 58 p.
Keyword [en]
Terrorism, Voting, Public Opinion, Rally Effect, Score-Keeping, Ideological Shift
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-294503OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-294503DiVA: diva2:930117
Subject / course
Peace and Conflict Studies
Educational program
Master Programme in Peace and Conflict Studies
Available from: 2016-06-22 Created: 2016-05-23 Last updated: 2016-06-22Bibliographically approved

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