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Don't judge a book by its cover: Understanding the influence of goal-structure on the disbandment of terrorist groups
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
2016 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Very little is known about the circumstances that lead a terrorist group to cease their operations in one way rather than another. This study seeks to answer the question what impact the goal-structure of a terrorist group has on their disbandment. A new framework describes the structure of goals by differentiating operative and official goals of terrorist groups along their geographical scope, their final goal’s extent, and the respective effectiveness this is accomplished by. I argue that strategic or abstract goal-structures determine the way a terrorist organisation ends. By applying a multinomial logistic regression model with a novel dataset on 155 groups’ goal-structures, I show that a more strategic goal-structure increases the likelihood of splintering and victory, while an abstract goal-structure increases the likelihood of defeat by police or military force whilst also leading terrorist groups to join non-violent political participation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. , 56 p.
Keyword [en]
goal-structure, terrorism, disbandment, ideology, counterterrorism
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-294534OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-294534DiVA: diva2:930396
Subject / course
Peace and Conflict Studies
Educational program
Master Programme in Peace and Conflict Studies
Supervisors
Available from: 2016-06-22 Created: 2016-05-24 Last updated: 2016-06-22Bibliographically approved

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