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Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
2016 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Wind farms are costly projects and prior to the construction, comprehensive wind

resource assessment processes are carried out in order to predict the future energy yield

with a reliable accuracy. These estimations are made to constitute a basis for the

financial assessment of the project. However, predicting the future always

accommodates some uncertainties and sometimes these assessments might overestimate

the production. Many different factors might account for a discrepancy between the pre-construction wind resource assessment and the operational production data. This thesis

investigates an underperforming wind farm in order to ascertain the reasons of a

discrepancy case. To investigate the case, the relevant data and information along with

the actual production data of three years are shared with the author. Prior to the

construction, a wind resource assessment was carried out by an independent wind

consultancy company and the work overestimated the annual energy production (AEP)

by 19.1% based on the average production value of available three years.

An extensive literature review is performed to identify the possible contributing causes

of the discrepancy. The data provided is investigated and a new wind resource

assessment is carried out. The underestimation of the wind farm losses are studied

extensively as a potential reason of the underperformance.

For the AEP estimations, WAsP in WindPro interface and WindSim are employed. The

use of WindSim led to about 2-2.5% less AEP estimations compared to the results of

WAsP. In order to evaluate the influence of long term correlations on the AEP

estimations, the climatology datasets are created using the two different reanalysis

datasets (MERRA and CFSR-E) as long term references. WindSim results based on the

climatology data obtained using the MERRA and CFSR-E datasets as long term

references overestimated the results by 10.9% and 8.2% respectively.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. , 81 p.
Keyword [en]
Wind Resource Assessment, Advanced Energy Estimations, Wind Farm Underperformance, Overestimation of the Energy Yield, WindSim, WindPro, WAsP, Wind Energy, Wind & Site Engineering.
National Category
Energy Engineering
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-299538OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-299538DiVA: diva2:949713
Educational program
Master Programme in Wind Power Project Management
Available from: 2016-08-04 Created: 2016-07-22 Last updated: 2016-08-04Bibliographically approved

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