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Correlation modeling of instantaneous solar irradiance with applications to solar engineering
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Solid State Physics.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Solid State Physics.
2016 (English)In: Solar Energy, ISSN 0038-092X, E-ISSN 1471-1257, Vol. 133, 14-23 p.Article in journal (Refereed) PublishedText
Abstract [en]

Estimating solar irradiance, in particular its variability, on Earth's surface is paramount for solar engineering and for improving the utilization of solar energy. This paper presents a novel approach to statistical modeling of instantaneous solar irradiance by using a multivariate probability distribution-a copula-to describe the dependency between beam and diffuse indices. This approach significantly simplifies certain calculations for solar energy engineering, which is shown with simulated outputs for photovoltaic (PV) systems for different orientations. The PV power generation is expressed as probability distributions, which is directly applicable for power system operation and design. It is also shown that an Angstrom-type equation, which is historically useful in relating time of bright sunshine to average solar radiation, is the statistical expectation of solar irradiance in this model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 133, 14-23 p.
Keyword [en]
Solar engineering, Clear-sky index, Copula, Probability distribution modeling
National Category
Other Environmental Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-299547DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2016.03.052ISI: 000377733300002OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-299547DiVA: diva2:949813
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency
Available from: 2016-07-25 Created: 2016-07-22 Last updated: 2016-07-25Bibliographically approved

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Munkhammar, JoakimWidén, Joakim
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