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The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant
Univ Southern Denmark, Max Planck Odense Ctr Biodemog Aging, Dept Biol, Campusvej 55, DK-5230 Odense M, Denmark..
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Biology, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Plant Ecology and Evolution.
Stockholm Univ, Dept Ecol Environm & Plant Sci, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden..
2016 (English)In: Ecology, ISSN 0012-9658, E-ISSN 1939-9170, Vol. 97, no 4, 899-907 p.Article in journal (Refereed) PublishedText
Abstract [en]

Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models. The population projection models accurately captured observed fluctuations in population size. Our analyses suggested the population was intrinsically regulated but with annual fluctuations in response to variation in weather. Simulations showed that implicitly assuming variation in demographic rates to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses to environmental changes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 97, no 4, 899-907 p.
Keyword [en]
climate change, demography, environmental drivers, environmental stochasticity, Fumana procumbens, integral projection model, intraspecific density dependence, long-term monitoring
National Category
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-300312DOI: 10.1890/15-0804.1ISI: 000373923100009OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-300312DiVA: diva2:951302
Swedish Research Council
Available from: 2016-08-08 Created: 2016-08-08 Last updated: 2016-08-08Bibliographically approved

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Bengtsson, Karin
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Plant Ecology and Evolution
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