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Simulating intra-hourly wind power fluctuations on a power system level
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Electricity. (Wind Power)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4921-8345
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Electricity.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8509-512X
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics and Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5451-4563
2017 (English)In: Wind Energy, ISSN 1095-4244, E-ISSN 1099-1824, Vol. 20, no 6, 973-985 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In wind integration studies, sub-hourly, load synchronous wind data are often preferable. These datasets can be generatedby a hybrid approach, combining hourly measurements or output from meteorological models with a stochastic simulationof the high-frequency fluctuations. This paper presents a method for simulating aggregated intra-hourly wind power fluc-tuations for a power system, taking into account the time-varying volatility seen in measurements. Some key elements inthe modelling were transformations to stationarity, the use of frequency domain techniques including a search for appropri-ate phase angles and an adjustment of the resulting time series in order to get correct hourly means. Generation data fromDenmark and Germany with 5 and 15 min temporal resolution were used for training models. It is shown that the distribu-tion and non-stationarity of simulated deviations from hourly means closely follow those of measurements. Power spectraldensities and step change distributions agree well. Of particular importance is that the results are good also when the train-ing and objective power systems are not the same. The computational cost is low in comparison with other approaches forgenerating high-frequency data.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. Vol. 20, no 6, 973-985 p.
Keyword [en]
Wind power, Sub-hourly fluctuations, Simulation, FFT, Power system studies
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-302826DOI: 10.1002/we.2074ISI: 000400860700003OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-302826DiVA: diva2:967966
Funder
Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, 2010-2787
Available from: 2016-09-10 Created: 2016-09-10 Last updated: 2017-07-07Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Modelling Wind Power for Grid Integration Studies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modelling Wind Power for Grid Integration Studies
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

When wind power and other intermittent renewable energy (IRE) sources begin to supply a significant part of the load, concerns are often raised about the inherent intermittency and unpredictability of these sources. In order to study the impact from higher IRE penetration levels on the power system, integration studies are regularly performed. The model package presented and evaluated in Papers I–IV provides a comprehensive methodology for simulating realistic time series of wind generation and forecasts for such studies. The most important conclusion from these papers is that models based on coarse meteorological datasets give very accurate results, especially in combination with statistical post-processing. Advantages with our approach include a physical coupling to the weather and wind farm characteristics, over 30 year long, 5-minute resolution time series, freely and globally available input data and computational times in the order of minutes. In this thesis, I make the argument that our approach is generally preferable to using purely statistical models or linear scaling of historical measurements.

In the variability studies in Papers V–VII, several IRE sources were considered. An important conclusion is that these sources and the load have very different variability characteristics in different frequency bands. Depending on the magnitudes and correlations of these fluctuation, different time scales will become more or less challenging to balance. With a suitable mix of renewables, there will be little or no increase in the needs for balancing on the seasonal and diurnal timescales, even for a fully renewable Nordic power system. Fluctuations with periods between a few days and a few months are dominant for wind power and net load fluctuations of this type will increase strongly for high penetrations of IRE, no matter how the sources are combined. According to our studies, higher capacity factors, more offshore wind power and overproduction/curtailment would be beneficial for the power system.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2016. 114 p.
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 1428
Keyword
Wind power, Wind power modelling, Intermittent renewables, Variability, Integration or renewables, Reanalysis data, Power system studies
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-302837 (URN)978-91-554-9690-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2016-11-04, Polhemsalen, Ångströmlaboratoriet, Lägerhyddsvägen 1, Uppsala, 09:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2016-10-07 Created: 2016-09-11 Last updated: 2016-10-25

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