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A New Approach to Obtain Synthetic Wind Power Forecasts for Integration Studies
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Electricity. (Wind Power)
Vattenfall.
Vattenfall.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Electricity.
2016 (English)In: Energies, ISSN 1996-1073, E-ISSN 1996-1073Article in journal (Refereed) Submitted
Abstract [en]

When performing wind integration studies, synthetic wind power forecasts are key elements. Historically, data from operational forecasting systems have been used sparsely, likely due to the high costs involved. Purely statistical methods for simulating wind power forecasts are more common, but have problems mimicking all relevant aspects of actual forecasts. Consequently, a new approach to obtain wind power forecasts for integration studies is proposed, relying on long time series of freely and globally available reforecasts from the GEFS dataset. In order to produce synthetic forecasts with similar properties as operational ditto, some processing (noise addition and error reduction) is necessary. Validations with measurements from Belgium and Sweden show that the method is adequate; distributions, correlations, autocorrelations and power spectral densities of forecast errors correspond well. Furthermore, abrupt changes when forecasts are updated and the existence of level and phase errors are reproduced. The influence from terrain complexity on error magnitude is promising, but more data is necessary for a proper validation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016.
Keyword [en]
wind power forecasting; synthetic forecasts; GEFS reforecast; power system studies; wind power integration; production planning; dispatch
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-302835OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-302835DiVA: diva2:967993
Available from: 2016-09-11 Created: 2016-09-11 Last updated: 2016-09-16
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