Conflict Diffusion: Ethnic Kin as a Transmitter of Internal Conflict
2005 (English)Conference paper (Other (popular scientific, debate etc.))
Is intrastate ethnic conflict contagious; that is, can ethnic conflict in one country increase the likelihood of the onset of ethnic conflict in a nearby country? This diffusion aspect of ethnic con-flict has not been examined systematically in previous studies. The paper considers the role of ethnic kinship as a conflict transmitter. Using a strategic interaction perspective, it is argued that ethnic conflict in one state, in combination with ethnic kin between states, may generate uncer-tainty in one or more neighboring states. Under certain conditions this uncertainty and fear about the future may compel actors in one or more neighboring countries to use violence. For instance, a conflict involving an ethnic group in one state may inspire kin groups in neighboring countries to reevaluate the stability of their own arrangements and challenge the existing power balance. Thus, it is hypothesized that ethnic conflict in one state, in interaction with the existence of shared ethnic kin between two states, increases the likelihood of ethnic conflict erupting in the second state. This hypothesis is assessed using a new global dataset of directed dyads of all neighboring countries in the time-span 1989-2002. The data is analyzed using logistic regression and the findings lend preliminary support for the hypothesis.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2005. 24- p.
ethnic conflict, conflict diffusion, ethnic kin, strategic interaction
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-68934OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-68934DiVA: diva2:96845