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Revising the Human Development Sequence Theory Using an Agent-Based Approach and Data
Univ Leeds, Sch Polit & Int Studies, Social Sci Bldg, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England..
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics and Statistics.
2016 (English)In: JASSS: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, ISSN 1460-7425, E-ISSN 1460-7425, Vol. 19, no 3, 1Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Agent-based models and computer simulations are promising tools for studying emergent macrophenomena. We apply an agent-based approach in combination with data analysis to investigate the human development sequence (HDS) theory developed by Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel. Although the HDS theory is supported by correlational evidence, the sequence of economic growth, democracy and emancipation stated by the theory is not entirely consistent with data. We use an agent-based model to make quantitative predictions about several different micro-level mechanisms. Comparison to data allows us to identify important inconsistencies between HDS and the data, and propose revised agent-based models that modify the theory. Our results indicate the importance of elites and economic inequality in explaining the data available on democratisation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 19, no 3, 1
Keyword [en]
agent-based simulation, data analysis, human development sequence theory, democratisation, mathematical modelling
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-303394DOI: 10.18564/jasss.3084ISI: 000381741600008OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-303394DiVA: diva2:971776
Funder
Swedish Research Council
Available from: 2016-09-19 Created: 2016-09-19 Last updated: 2016-09-19Bibliographically approved

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Sumpter, David J. T.
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