The long-run relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP: Evidence from Japan and Germany
Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
This study aims to examine the long-run relationships between total electricity (and two electricity types, i.e. combustible fuels electricity and nuclear energy) consumption and real output in Japan and Germany. First I examine the long-run relationships between total (and type) electricity consumption and real GDP for each country in a four-variable cointegration framework over 1996Q4–2015Q2. In each country’s case, a significant cointegrating relationship between total (and type) electricity consumption and real GDP is found. Then I examine Granger causality between total (and type) electricity consumption and real GDP for each country. In Japan’s case, real GDP is dependent on electricity consumption over 1996Q4–2015Q2. In Germany’s case, an increase (a decrease) in real GDP is followed by more (less) electricity consumption. Both countries might have had an oversupply of nuclear energy in relation to real output over 1996Q4–2011Q1. In Germany’s case, the oversupply of nuclear energy has been eliminated following the nuclear phase-out. Further, the policy implications that arise from the empirical results are discussed.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Bounds test, Cointegration, Fukushima, Granger causality, Structural break
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-303621OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-303621DiVA: diva2:972460
Master Programme in Statistics
Johansson, Per, Professor