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The long-run relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP: Evidence from Japan and Germany
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
2016 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This study aims to examine the long-run relationships between total electricity (and two electricity types, i.e. combustible fuels electricity and nuclear energy) consumption and real output in Japan and Germany. First I examine the long-run relationships between total (and type) electricity consumption and real GDP for each country in a four-variable cointegration framework over 1996Q4–2015Q2. In each country’s case, a significant cointegrating relationship between total (and type) electricity consumption and real GDP is found. Then I examine Granger causality between total (and type) electricity consumption and real GDP for each country. In Japan’s case, real GDP is dependent on electricity consumption over 1996Q4–2015Q2. In Germany’s case, an increase (a decrease) in real GDP is followed by more (less) electricity consumption. Both countries might have had an oversupply of nuclear energy in relation to real output over 1996Q4–2011Q1. In Germany’s case, the oversupply of nuclear energy has been eliminated following the nuclear phase-out. Further, the policy implications that arise from the empirical results are discussed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016.
Keyword [en]
Bounds test, Cointegration, Fukushima, Granger causality, Structural break
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-303621OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-303621DiVA: diva2:972460
Educational program
Master Programme in Statistics
Supervisors
Available from: 2016-09-21 Created: 2016-09-21 Last updated: 2016-09-21Bibliographically approved

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