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Disaggregating Dissent: The Challenges of Intra-Party Consolidation in Civil War and Peace Negotiations
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
2010 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Contemporary civil wars are often characterized not only by fighting between rebels and governments, but also by rebel violence against their own community members. In spite of repeated peace negotiations, many of these conflicts seem to go on endlessly. Such instances may reflect attempts or failures on the part of the non-state side to consolidate. To confront the government on the battle field or at the negotiation table, rebels need to become an effective fighting force as well as effective negotiators. So, what do rebels do to consolidate to wage war and negotiate peace? The dissertation approaches the question of rebel capacity by disaggregating the non-state side in civil war and in connection with peace talks. The dissertation offers a set of original case studies from three ethno-separatist conflicts: Sri Lanka, Indonesian Aceh, and Senegal. It combines qualitative methods with one study also containing basic regression analysis. The empirical analysis reveals that the risk perceptions, information asymmetries, and commitment issues that often mark the relationship between the state and non-state parties are also prevalent within the non-state party. The overall argument is that rebels’ consolidation of their capacity to fight and negotiate entails different processes. More specifically, it first specifies conditions under which rebels use violence against members of their own ethnic community as part of the war against the government by emphasizing the importance of timing, territorial control, and ethnic demographic concentration. Second, it explores and highlights the importance of the rich repertoire of non-violent methods which rebels employ to enhance their fighting capacity. Third, it draws attention to the significant role of social network structures on the non-state side by empirically examining these structures, and their relationship to civil war dynamics and peace negotiations. Fourth, it sheds new light on pre-negotiation and ripeness theory by specifying the elements on the non-state side that need to be mobilized for a peace settlement, and what mobilization measures are used at what time. By furthering an understanding of the non-state side in civil war and peace processes, the dissertation helps third parties to engage more constructively in peacemaking, and humanitarian and development assistance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala, 2010. , p. 27
Series
Report / Department of Peace and Conflict Research, ISSN 0566-8808 ; 90
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-121237ISBN: 978-91-506-2130-3 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-121237DiVA, id: diva2:304758
Public defence
2010-05-12, Sal IX, Universitetshuset, Uppsala, 10:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2010-04-20 Created: 2010-03-19 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Trapping Constituents or Winning Hearts and Minds?: Rebel Strategies to Attain Constituent Support in Sri Lanka
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Trapping Constituents or Winning Hearts and Minds?: Rebel Strategies to Attain Constituent Support in Sri Lanka
2009 (English)In: Terrorism and Political Violence, ISSN 0954-6553, E-ISSN 1556-1836, Vol. 21, no 2, p. 306-326Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Why do rebels choose violence over non-violent methods to attain the cooperation of their constituency in the war against the government? This article assesses the importance of rebels' dependency on constituent support through a case study of the LTTE in Sri Lanka. The empirical findings suggest that dependency largely results in non-violent measures. However, a multitude of passive coercion methods - broadly unaccounted for by existing theory - evolve over time in the form of territorial and social entrapments. This implies that rebels do not need the hearts and minds of their people to wage war at later stages of conflict. Time pressure, however, appears to result in violence.

Keywords
civilians, coercion, human security, internal armed conflict, passive coercion, rebel-civilian relationship
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-121229 (URN)10.1080/09546550902765615 (DOI)000264530100007 ()
Available from: 2010-03-19 Created: 2010-03-19 Last updated: 2018-05-31Bibliographically approved
2. Intra-Ethnic Dominance and Control: Violence against Co-Ethnics in the Early Sri Lankan Civil War
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Intra-Ethnic Dominance and Control: Violence against Co-Ethnics in the Early Sri Lankan Civil War
2011 (English)In: Security Studies, ISSN 0963-6412, E-ISSN 1556-1852, Vol. 20, no 2, p. 171-197Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In some ethno-separatist wars, rebel groups direct a large share of violence against members of their own ethnic community. But why do rebels target the co-ethnics they claim to represent in the war against the government? Our aim in this paper is to provide the components for a conceptual framework that we assess using unique disaggregated casualty data on violence committed by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam against co-ethnic Tamils in territories claimed for the Tamil Eelam state in the early phase of the Sri Lankan conflict, 1985–88. We propose that there are two distinct processes of intraethnic violence: violence against co-ethnic civilians and violence against co-ethnic rivals. While the former aims at controlling the population to win the war against the government, the latter aims at establishing leadership dominance over the ethnic minority. We examine the role of ethnic homogeneity in shaping the use of violence directed against the two types of co-ethnic targets in the buildup phase of ethno-separatist war. We conclude that ethnic demographic structures matter for how the rebels treat co-ethnics in the early phase of war before they have established territorial control.

National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-121230 (URN)10.1080/09636412.2011.572676 (DOI)
Available from: 2010-03-19 Created: 2010-03-19 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
3. Ripening Within?: Mobilization Strategies Used by Rebel Negotiators to End Ethnic War
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Ripening Within?: Mobilization Strategies Used by Rebel Negotiators to End Ethnic War
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-121233 (URN)
Available from: 2010-03-19 Created: 2010-03-19 Last updated: 2010-03-19
4. Trust and Treason: Social Network Structure as a Source of Flexibility in Peace Negotiations
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Trust and Treason: Social Network Structure as a Source of Flexibility in Peace Negotiations
2012 (English)In: Negotiation and Conflict Management Research, ISSN 1750-4708, E-ISSN 1750-4716, Vol. 5, no 1, p. 96-125Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To reach a negotiated peace settlement, the parties to the conflict have to show flexibility in their negotiation positions. This article examines why some rebel groups are flexible on the main issue of contention, whereas others are not. The study explores rebels' social network structure as a source of negotiation flexibility. The proposition that a rebel group structured as a "trust network" can manage the risks of peace making through a "trust mechanism" of information sharing, verification, and mutual influence between rebel negotiators and non-negotiating rebel leaders, is consistent with a procedural justice logic. The proposition is analyzed for negotiations between LTTE and the Sri Lankan government, and Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (GAM) and the Indonesian government. The findings support the proposition, and highlight the potential of social network analysis to further the understanding of conflict resolution. Policy wise, the evolution of network structure implies that the likelihood of negotiation success varies over time.

National Category
Social Sciences
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-121234 (URN)10.1111/j.1750-4716.2011.00092.x (DOI)000313695900006 ()
Available from: 2010-03-19 Created: 2010-03-19 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved

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