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  • 1. Chaxel, Anne-Sophie
    et al.
    Russo, J. Edward
    Kerimi, Neda
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för psykologi.
    Preference-driven biases in decision makers' information search and evaluation2013Ingår i: Judgment and decision making, ISSN 1930-2975, E-ISSN 1930-2975, Vol. 8, nr 5, s. 561-576Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    While it is well established that the search for information after a decision is biased toward supporting that decision, the case of preference-supporting search before the decision remains open. Three studies of consumer choices consistently found a complete absence of a pre-choice bias toward searching for preference-supporting information. The absence of this confirming search bias occurred for products that were both hedonic and utilitarian, both expensive and inexpensive, and both high and low in expected brand loyalty. Experiment 3 also verified the presence of the expected post-choice search bias to support the chosen alternative. Therefore the absence of a pre-choice search bias in all three studies was not likely to be due to our using a method that was so insensitive that a search bias would not be observed under any circumstances. In addition to the absence of an effect of prior preferences on information selection, subjects' self-reported search strategies exhibited a clear tendency toward a balance of positive and negative information. Across the three studies, we also tested for the presence of a preference-supporting bias in the evaluation of the information acquired in the search process. This evaluation bias was found both pre- and post-choice.

  • 2.
    Juslin, Peter
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för psykologi.
    Exemplar-based inference in multi-attribute decision making: Contingent, not automatic, strategy shifts?2008Ingår i: Judgment and decision making, ISSN 1930-2975, E-ISSN 1930-2975, nr 3, s. 244-260Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 3. Karlsson, Linnea
    et al.
    Olsson, Henrik
    Juslin, Peter
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för psykologi.
    Exemplar-based inference in multi-attribute decision making: Contingent, not automatic, strategy shifts?2008Ingår i: Judgment and decision making, ISSN 1930-2975, E-ISSN 1930-2975, Vol. 3, nr 3, s. 244-260Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Several studies propose that exemplar retrieval contributes to multi-attribute decisions. The authors have proposed a process theory enabling a priori predictions of what cognitive representations people use as input to their judgment process (Sigma, for "summation"; P. Juslin, L. Karlsson, & H. Olsson, 2008). According to Sigma, exemplar retrieval is a back-up system when the task does not allow for additive and linear abstraction and integration of cue-criterion knowledge (e. g., when the task is non-additive). An important question is to what extent such shifts occur spontaneously as part of automatic procedures, such as error-minimization with the Delta rule, or if they are controlled strategy shifts contingent on the ability to identify a sufficiently successful judgment strategy. In this article data are reviewed that demonstrate a shift between exemplar memory and cue abstraction, as well as data where the expected shift does not occur. In contrast to a common assumption of previous models, these results suggest a controlled and contingent strategy shift.

  • 4.
    Millroth, Philip
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för psykologi.
    Nilsson, Håkan
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för psykologi.
    Juslin, Peter
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för psykologi.
    The decision paradoxes motivating Prospect Theory: The prevalence of the paradoxes increases with numerical ability2019Ingår i: Judgment and decision making, ISSN 1930-2975, E-ISSN 1930-2975, Vol. 14, nr 4, s. 513-533Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Prospect Theory (PT: Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) of risky decision making is based on psychological phenomena (paradoxes) that motivate assumptions about how people react to gains and losses, and how they weight outcomes with probabilities. Recent studies suggest that people's numeracy affect their decision making. We therefore conducted a large-scale conceptual replication of the seminal study by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), where we targeted participants with larger variability in numeracy. Because people low in numeracy may be more dependent on anchors in the form of other judgments we also manipulated design type (within-subject design, vs. single-stimuli design, where participants assess only one problem). The results from about 1,800 participants showed that design type had no effect on the modal choices. The rate of replication of the paradoxes in Kahneman and Tversky was poor and positively related to the participants' numeracy. The Probabilistic Insurance Effect was observed at all levels of numeracy. The Reflection Effects were not fully replicated at any numeracy level. The Certainty and Isolation Effects explained by nonlinear probability weighting were replicated only at high numeracy. No participant exhibited all 9 paradoxes and more than 50% of the participants exhibited at most three of the 9 paradoxes. The choices by the participants with low numeracy were consistent with a shift towards a cautionary non-compensatory strategy of minimizing the risk of receiving the worst possible outcome. We discuss the implications for the psychological assumptions of PT.

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