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  • 1.
    Bjarnegård, Elin
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government.
    Melander, Erik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Revisiting Representation: Communism, Women in Politics, and the Decline of Armed Conflict in East Asia2013In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 39, no 4, p. 558-574Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This research note evaluates one of the commonly used measurements for political gender equality: representation of women in parliaments. It demonstrates that caution is called for when interpreting results where this variable is used, because parliamentary representation implies different things in different settings. Societies with more women in parliament tend to have fewer intrastate armed conflicts. We investigate this statistical association with a particular focus on East Asia. This region has seen a shift from extremely intense warfare to low levels of battle deaths at roughly the same time as great strides have been made in the representation of women in parliaments. This research note shows, however, that this statistical association is driven by authoritarian communist regimes promoting gender equality as a part of communist ideology, and these countries’ representative chambers have little influence over politics. Using statistical tests and empirical illustrations from East Asia, the note concludes that the political representation of women is an invalid indicator of political gender equality in East Asia. There is thus a need for nuance in assessing the picture painted in earlier research. In addition, the suggestion that more women in parliament will lead to fewer armed conflicts runs the risk of being forwarded as an oversimplified solution to a complex problem, and we briefly discuss the instrumentalization of gender equality in peace and security studies.

  • 2.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Østby, Gudrun
    Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-20082014In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 40, no 5, p. 737-762Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article examines the role of economic inequality in influencing the risk of armed conflict between communal groups in Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that socioeconomic inequality can generate intergroup grievances, which, due to the exclusionary legitimacy of the African state and elite incentives to engage in competitive mobilization of communal groups, precipitate violent communal conflict. To examine this argument, we rely on a series of household surveys to construct subnational inequality measures. For each region, we calculate measures of inequality in terms of household welfare and education between individuals (vertical inequality) and between ethnic groups (horizontal inequality). Combining the inequality data with new georeferenced data on communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1990-2008, we find that regions with strong socioeconomic inequalities-both vertical and horizontal-are significantly more exposed to violent communal conflicts. More specifically, regions in which the largest ethnic group is severely disadvantaged compared to other groups are particularly prone to experience communal conflict.

  • 3.
    Forsberg, Erika
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Transnational Transmitters: Ethnic Kinship Ties and Conflict Contagion 1946–20092014In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 40, no 2, p. 143-165Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous research has proposed that ethnic conflict may spread across borders. Although the importance of transnational ethnic groups is often emphasized, the processes through which contagion may take place remain unspecified. The present study presents a context for more precise analysis of contagion. Further, it identifies distinct processes through which contagion is likely to occur within this context. It is argued that when an ethnic group engages in violent conflict in one state, kin in a nearby state may be inspired to rebel because the outbreak of conflict renders ethnic bonds and similar conditions salient. These bonds and similarities become even more salient when the kin group has opportunities and willingness to mobilize for rebellion. Statistical analysis employing unique global data covering 1946-2009 supports this argument. These results indicate that kinship ties matter for contagion and identify some of the conditions which amplify the effects such ties have for contagion.

  • 4.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Attacks on Civilians in Civil War: Targeting the Achilles Heel of Democratic Governments2012In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 38, no 2, p. 164-181Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous research has indicated that democracy decreases the risk of armed conflict, while increasing the likelihood of terrorist attacks, but we know little about the effect of democracy on violence against civilians in ongoing civil conflicts. This study seeks to fill this empirical gap in the research on democracy and political violence, by examining all rebel groups involved in an armed conflict 1989-2004. Using different measures of democracy, the results demonstrate that rebels target more civilians when facing a democratic (or semi-democratic) government. Democracies are perceived as particularly vulnerable to attacks on the population, since civilians can hold the government accountable for failures to provide security, and this provides incentives for rebels to target civilians. At the same time, the openness of democratic societies provides opportunities for carrying out violent attacks. Thus, the strength of democracy-its accountability and openness-can become an Achilles heel during an internal armed conflict.

  • 5.
    Kreutz, Joakim
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    From Tremors to Talks: Do Natural Disasters Produce Ripe Moments for Resolving Separatist Conflicts?2012In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 38, no 4, p. 482-502Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper suggests that natural disasters can produce a ripe moment for conflict resolution because governments faced with the demand for effective disaster relief have incentives to offer concessions to separatist challengers. An analysis of the prevalence of new negotiations, ceasefires, and peace agreements during 12-month periods prior to and post natural disasters for separatist dyads 1990-2004 reveal some support for this proposition. Natural disasters increase the likelihood that parties will initiate talks or agree to ceasefires but have less effect on the signing of peace agreements. In line with the proposed mechanism, these results are particularly strong in democracies and following more severe disasters where the need to provide relief is most acute.   

  • 6.
    Melander, Erik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Möller, Frida
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Managing Intrastate Low-intensity Armed Conflict 1993-2004: A New Dataset2009In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 35, no 1, p. 58-85Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents a new event dataset covering third-party measures in intrastate low-intensity conflict dyads for the period 1993-2004, Managing Low-Intensity Intrastate Conflict (MILC). The rationale behind MILC is to enable the systematic study of third-party conflict management activities that might contribute to preventing these minor conflicts from escalating to the level of full-scale war. Intrastate armed conflict dyads are followed, and third-party activities mapped, until the dyad escalates to full-scale war or the dyad becomes inactive. The dataset contains information on the intermediaries as well as the different types of measures undertaken. The data include measures such as different types of talks, good offices, arbitration, fact-finding missions, permanent observation missions, and peacekeeping. In addition, a wealth of novel descriptive findings is presented, such as the distribution of third-party efforts over regions as well as over individual conflict dyads. We notice that the Middle East attracts the most third-party involvement relative to the number of active conflict dyads. Asia, in contrast, is relatively neglected given the high number of conflicts on the continent. The trend in third-party activity over time is presented, and we show that the number of third-party efforts globally is relatively constant over the period of study with the exception of a dramatic spike in activity related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the years 2000-2002. The distribution of different types of measures and third parties is also presented. The most active third parties include several major powers and intergovernmental organizations, but also a few middle powers.

  • 7.
    Melin, Molly M.
    et al.
    Department of Political Science, Loyola University, Chicago.
    Svensson, Isak
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Incentives for Talking: Accepting Mediation in International and Civil Wars2009In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 35, no 3, p. 249-271Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper examines the conditions under which warring parties will accept an outside party's offer to mediate. Specifically, we explore variation in the incentives for accepting third-party offers in interstate conflicts as compared to civil wars. We argue that since mediation in civil wars transfers legitimacy to the non-state actor and can generate a precedent of exceptions to the norm of sovereignty, the political cost associated with accepting international mediation will be substantially higher in civil wars compared to international conflicts. States should therefore only accept mediation in the most serious disputes, or when the costs of legitimizing an opponent are outweighed by the benefits of conflict resolution. Building on this theoretical reasoning, the paper analyzes the implications of differences in incentive structures between inter- and intrastate conflicts for offer and acceptance of mediation. We find an empirical discrepancy between interstate and civil wars in regard to demand-side (acceptance) of mediation, and to a somewhat lesser extent the supply-side (offer) of international mediation. In line with our argument, we find that the historical ties between the potential intermediary and at least one of the disputants play different roles in regard to acceptance of mediation in interstate compared to civil wars. This is important to take into consideration in the emerging debate on mediation bias.

  • 8.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace2012In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 38, no 2, p. 243-266Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Is peace more likely to prevail when the peace accord includes civil society actors such as religious groups, women's organizations, and human rights groups? This is the first statistical study that explores this issue. The article develops key claims in previous research regarding the role of civil society actors and durable peace, and proposes a set of hypotheses that focus on legitimacy in this process. The hypotheses are examined by employing unique data on the inclusion of civil society actors in all peace agreements in the post-Cold War period. The statistical analysis shows that inclusion of civil society actors in the peace settlement increases the durability of peace. The results further demonstrate that peace accords with involvement from civil society actors and political parties in combination are more likely to see peace prevail. The findings also suggest that inclusion of civil society has a particularly profound effect on the prospects for overall peace in nondemocratic societies.

  • 9.
    Svensson, Isak
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Lindgren, Mathilda
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Peace from the Inside: Exploring the Role of the Insider-Partial Mediator2013In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 39, no 5, p. 698-722Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous quantitative research on mediation in intrastate and interstate conflicts has highlighted the role of external mediators. This study represents the first effort to systematically explore the role of internal—insider-partial—mediators. We suggest that the insider-partial mediators bring important indigenous resources to a peace process and that they can complement external mediators by mitigating the bargaining problem of information failure. Exploring new data on the occurrence and effect of mediation in unarmed insurrections from 1970–2006, we find that the insider-partial mediators significantly increase the likelihood of negotiated agreements. This applies even after controlling for so-called selection effects, where external mediators are selected, or self-selected, into the most difficult conflict situations, whereas insider-partial mediators are utilized in conflict situations that are less severe; and where insider-partial mediators have a substantially higher frequency of activity in unarmed as compared to armed insurrections. We therefore conclude that the insider-partial mediators play an important and positive role in peacemaking that merits further exploration.

1 - 9 of 9
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