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  • 1.
    Allansson, Marie
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Uppsala Univ, Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Melander, Erik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Uppsala Univ, Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Themnér, Lotta
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Uppsala Univ, Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Organized violence, 1989-20162017In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 54, no 4, p. 574-587Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The dramatic increase in the number of fatalities in organized violence, seen between 2011 and 2014, did not continue in 2015 and 2016. Rather, the notation of some 131,000 fatalities in 2014 was followed by a steep decline, with just below 119,000 in 2015 and a little over 102,000 fatalities in 2016. Despite the decrease, the number was the fifth highest during the entire 1989-2016 period. Most of the fatalities - over 87,000 - were incurred in state-based conflicts, the main driver behind the trend. Just as the number of fatalities, the number of state-based conflicts, albeit remaining on a high level, continued to decrease in 2016, going from 52 to 49, with 12 of them reaching the level of war, with at least 1,000 battle-related deaths. Also the non-state conflicts dropped in number in 2016, from 73 to 60. This was followed by a decrease in the number of fatalities, and only one conflict caused more than 1,000 deaths. Twenty-one actors were registered in one-sided violence, down by five from 2015. A number this low has only been recorded twice before; in both 2009 and 2010, 21 one-sided actors were listed in UCDP data. The number of fatalities also decreased, going from almost 9,800 to a little over 6,000.

  • 2.
    Bara, Corinne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Incentives and Opportunities: A Complexity-oriented Explanation of Violent Ethnic Conflict2014In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 51, no 6, p. 696-710Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Existing research on the causes of violent ethnic conflict is characterized by an enduring debate on whether theseconflicts are the result of deeply felt grievances or the product of an opportunity structure in which rebellion isan attractive and/or viable option. This article argues that the question of whether incentive- or opportunity-based explanations of conflict have more explanatory power is fundamentally misguided, as conflict is more likelythe result of a complex interaction of both. The fact is, however, that there is little generalized knowledge about theseinteractions. This study aims to fill this gap and applies crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) in order toidentify constellations of risk factors that are conducive to ethnic conflict. The results demonstrate the explanatoryleverage gained by taking causal complexity in the form of risk patterns into account. It takes no more than fourdifferent configurations of a total of eight conditions to reliably explain almost two-thirds of all ethnic conflict onsetsbetween 1990 and 2009. Moreover, these four configurations are quasi-sufficient for onset, leading to conflictin 88% of all cases covered. The QCA model generated in this article also fares well in predicting conflictsin-sample and out-of-sample, with the in-sample predictions being more precise than those generated by a simplebinary logistic regression.

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  • 3.
    Birch, Sarah
    et al.
    Department of Political Economy, King’s College London.
    Daxecker, Ursula E
    Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam.
    Höglund, Kristine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Electoral violence: An introduction2020In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 57, no 1, p. 3-14Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Elections are held in nearly all countries in the contemporary world. Yet despite their aim of allowing for peaceful transfers of power, elections held outside of consolidated democracies are often accompanied by substantial violence. This special issue introduction article establishes electoral violence as a subtype of political violence with distinct analytical and empirical dynamics. We highlight how electoral violence is distinct from other types of organized violence, but also how it is qualitatively different from nonviolent electoral manipulation. The article then surveys what we have learned about the causes and consequences of electoral violence, identifies important research gaps in the literature, and proceeds to discuss the articles included in the special issue. The contributions advance research in four domains: the micro-level targeting and consequences of electoral violence, the institutional foundations of electoral violence, the conditions leading to high-stakes elections, and electoral violence in the context of other forms of organized violence. The individual articles are methodologically and geographically diverse, encompassing ethnography, survey vignette and list experiments and survey data, quantitative analyses of subnational and crossnational event data, and spanning Africa, Latin America, and Asia.

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  • 4.
    Bjarnegård, Elin
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government.
    Brounéus, Karen
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Melander, Erik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Honor and Political Violence: Micro-level findings from a Survey in Thailand2017In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 54, no 6, p. 748-761Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Who participates in political violence? In this study, we investigate the issue at the micro-level, comparing individuals who have used violence in political uprising with those who have not. We develop our argument from the observation that men are strongly overrepresented in political violence, although most men do not participate. Literature on masculinities emphasizes the role of honor and its links to different forms of violence, such as domestic abuse, criminal violence, and violent attitudes. Building on this literature, we discern two separate but related aspects of honor: honor as male societal privilege and control over female sexuality, i.e., patriarchal values, and honor as ideals of masculine toughness, i.e., the perceived necessity for men to be fierce and respond to affronts with violence or threats of violence in order to preserve status. We argue that patriarchal values combined with ideals of masculine toughness together constitute honor ideology, which contributes in turn to the explanation of who participates in political violence. We present new and unique individual-level survey data on these issues, collected in Thailand. We find that honor ideology strongly and robustly predicts a higher likelihood of participating in political violence among male political activists. A number of previous studies find a macro-level relationship between gender equality and peacefulness in a society. This study provides evidence for one micro-level mechanism linking gender equality and political violence at the macro-level. Based on these results, we conclude that honor ideology endorsement is a driver of violence in political conflicts.

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  • 5.
    Brosché, Johan
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
    Höglund, Kristine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Electoral violence and the legacy of authoritarian rule in Kenya and Zambia2020In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 57, no 1, p. 111-125Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Why do the first multiparty elections after authoritarian rule turn violent in some countries but not in others? Thisarticle places legacies from the authoritarian past at the core of an explanation of when democratic openings becomeassociated with electoral violence in multi-ethnic states, and complement existing research focused on the immediateconditions surrounding the elections. We argue that authoritarian rule characterized by more exclusionary multiethniccoalitions creates legacies that amplify the risk of violent elections during the shift to multiparty politics.Through competitive and fragmented interethnic relations, exclusionary systems foreclose the forging of cross-ethnicelite coalitions and make hostile narratives a powerful tool for political mobilization. By contrast, regimes with abroad-based ethnic support base cultivate inclusive inter-elite bargaining, enable cross-ethnic coalitions, and reduceincentives for hostile ethnic mobilization, which lower the risk of violent elections. We explore this argument bycomparing founding elections in Zambia (1991), which were largely peaceful, and Kenya (1992), with large-scalestate-instigated electoral violence along ethnic lines. The analysis suggests that the type of authoritarian rule createdpolitical legacies that underpinned political competition and mobilization during the first multiparty elections, andmade violence a more viable electoral strategy in Kenya than in Zambia.

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  • 6.
    Burns, Tom R
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Buckley, Walter
    University of Hampshire.
    The Prisoners Dilemma Game as a System of Social Domination1964In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 11, no 3, p. 221-228Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 7.
    Cil, Deniz
    et al.
    Univ Maryland, Dept Govt & Polit, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Mapping Blue Helmets: Introducing the Geocoded Peacekeeping Operations (Geo-PKO) dataset2020In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 57, no 2, p. 360-370Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this article, we introduce the Geocoded Peacekeeping Operations (Geo-PKO) dataset, which presents new data on subnational peacekeeping deployment for all UN missions to Africa, 1994–2014. The Geo-PKO dataset is the most comprehensive dataset of its kind and enables scholars to address new questions about peacekeeping operations and their effects by exploring variations in peacekeeping at the subnational level. The dataset offers information on several key features of peacekeeping deployment at the local level, such as data on the size of deployments and how these vary over time, as well as information on the location of mission headquarters, the type of peacekeepers deployed, and which troop-contributing countries deploy to each location. This article describes the data collection process and illustrates some of the many utilities of this dataset for the scholarly community. For example, we show that peacekeeping troops are able to reduce battle-related violence in areas with high road density, suggesting that peacekeepers’ ability to project their power is stronger when they can increase their reach and more easily patrol larger territories. Hence, our data can fruitfully be combined with information such as socio-economic, geographical or demographic characteristics, to further explore how peacekeeping operations can contribute to peace and security in the areas where they operate. By providing fine-grained data on the location of peacekeepers across time and space, the Geo-PKO dataset should help facilitate important inquires that can push the research agenda on peacekeeping forward.

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  • 8.
    Dafoe, Allan
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Kelsey, Nina
    Observing the capitalist peace: Examining market-mediated signaling and other mechanisms2014In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 51, no 5, p. 619-633Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Countries with open capital markets tend to have fewer militarized disputes and wars. Gartzke, Li & Boehmer propose that this association arises from the enhanced ability of states with open capital markets to credibly signal resolve through the bearing of economic costs ex ante to militarized escalation. We test this causal mechanism by qualitatively examining six crucial cases in which the mechanism is most likely to be operative and observable. We employ a formal case selection strategy designed to yield cases with high inferential leverage for our confirmatory test and to select cases for an exploratory analysis of scope conditions. Through analysis of media reports, government documents, and other sources, we evaluate the extent to which relevant individuals drew the appropriate inferences about market-mediated costs and resolve. We conclude that while market-mediated signaling may operate in major conflicts, it is unlikely to account for much of the association between capital openness and peace. Exploratory analysis of our cases identifies potential scope conditions, clarifies the role of different signaling mechanisms, and suggests other explanations for the peaceful behavior of countries with open capital markets.

  • 9.
    Davies, Shawn
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Pettersson, Therese
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Organized violence 1989-2021 and drone warfare2022In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 59, no 4, p. 593-610Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized violence in the world, observed between 2014 and 2019, was decisively reversed in 2021 as fatalities increased significantly. UCDP registered more than 119,100 deaths in organized violence in 2021, a 46% increase from the previous year. The increase was largely driven by escalating conflicts in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Yemen. Fatalities increased in all three categories of organized violence, despite a decrease in the number of active state-based conflicts, as well as the number of actors carrying out one-sided violence against civilians. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2021, a decrease by two compared to the previous year. Five of the conflicts were active at the intensity of war, the lowest number of wars since 2010. Violence in 2021 was thus concentrated to fewer but bloodier conflicts. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, have become increasingly important features of modern conflicts, and the trend in their usage is discussed in the special feature section. UAV usage has since 2019 dispersed among a significant larger number of actors, even as the downscaling in the involvement of the United States in the war on terror has led to a decrease in drone-related fatalities.

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  • 10.
    Davies, Shawn
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Pettersson, Therese
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Öberg, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Organized violence 1989-2022, and the return of conflict between states2023In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 60, no 4, p. 691-708Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). In 2022, fatalities from organized violence increased by a staggering 97%, compared to the previous year, from 120,000 in 2021 to 237,000 in 2022, making 2022 the deadliest year since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. The increase was driven by two, particularly deadly, state-based armed conflicts: the Russia-Ukraine war, and the war in Ethiopia against TPLF (Tigray People's Liberation Front). With more than 81,500 and 101,000 fatalities respectively, these are the two most deadly state-based conflict-years recorded in the post-1989 period. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the first large-scale interstate war in 20 years, and the first interstate armed conflict since World War II where a major power in the international system seeks both territorial gains for itself and the subjugation of another state through regime change. We have witnessed an emerging trend of increased conflict between states in the last decade, including cases where major powers support opposite sides in internationalized intrastate conflict. UCDP recorded 55 active state-based armed conflicts in 2022, an increase of one compared to the previous year. Eight of these conflicts reached the level of war. While the fatalities caused by non-state conflict decreased somewhat when compared to 2021, the number of non-state conflicts, as well as both the number of civilians killed in one-sided violence and the number of actors carrying out such violence, increased in 2022.

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  • 11. de Soysa, Indra
    et al.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Is the hidden hand an iron fist?: Capitalism and civil peace, 1970-20052010In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 47, no 3, p. 287-298Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is surprisingly little empirical scholarship on the spread of capitalistic economic policies under the rubric of 'globalization' and domestic peace. While the classical liberals saw free markets leading to social harmony because of self-interest of individuals, who cooperate for profit, Marxists and others viewed markets as anarchical, requiring state intervention for obtaining justice and peace. The authors argue from an opportunity-cost perspective that the payoffs to rebellion are structured by how an economy is governed. Closed economies are likelier than more open ones to accumulate 'rebellion specific capital' because of high payoffs to organization in the shadows. Using an index of economic freedom that measures how free people are to transact in an economy, the authors find that countries more favorable to free enterprise have a reduced risk of civil war onsets, a result that is robust to the inclusion of institutional quality, per capita wealth, and sundry controls. The results hold up despite a battery of specification changes, alternative data, and testing methods. The findings do not suggest that states under conditions of capitalism lose their autonomy to provide the public good of peace, as skeptics of globalization claim. Peacemakers will do well to build institutions that reward productive investment over rent-seeking, alongside democratic institutions that ultimately gain their legitimacy on the back of good economic performance and well-functioning markets.

  • 12.
    Deglow, Annekatrin
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Localized legacies of civil war: Postwar violent crime in Northern Ireland2016In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 53, no 6, p. 786-799Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study explores the local effects of internal armed conflict on postwar violent crime in Northern Ireland. It argues that exposure to wartime violence will lead to higher levels of violent crime in the aftermath of conflict. Particularly, it claims that exposure to violence committed by armed groups challenging the state (anti-government groups) will have this effect, as it erodes the legitimacy needed for local law enforcement agencies to function effectively. This, in turn, is expected to contribute to the emergence of a postwar public security gap that lowers opportunity costs to resort to violent crime for a range of local actors. To evaluate these propositions, spatial statistics on a subnational dataset covering war-related fatalities for the period 1969-98 and police crime records for the postwar period 2002-06 are employed. The results indicate that the more an area has been exposed to violence, and the larger the proportion of this violence committed by anti-government groups, the more violent crime on the local level. This study hence contributes both to the burgeoning literature on the legacies of civil war and to recent research emphasizing the need to disaggregate non-state actors.

  • 13.
    Doyle, Lindsey
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hegele, Lukas
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Polit Sci, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Talks before the talks: Effects of pre-negotiation on reaching peace agreements in intrastate armed conflicts, 2005-152021In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 58, no 2, p. 231-247Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Pre-negotiation is widely accepted as a means to convince intrastate conflict parties to negotiate formally; however, research has not yet established a causal link between early efforts to bring warring parties together and the outcome of any negotiated settlement. This gap begs the question: To what extent do activities during the pre-negotiation phase contribute to the signing of a peace agreement? Theory on interstate conflict suggests that pre-negotiation reduces risk, thereby convincing conflict parties that they have more to gain from negotiating than from fighting. However, in conflicts between governments and non-state armed actors, this article argues that reciprocity paves the way for reaching peace agreements. This article introduces a new dataset on pre-negotiation including nearly all intrastate armed conflicts between 2005 and 2015. Confirming previous findings, mediation is significantly and positively correlated with reaching a type of peace agreement; conflicts over government are more likely to end in a negotiated agreement than conflicts over territory or both government and territory. In contrast to existing qualitative research, this study finds little evidence that pre-negotiation increases the likelihood that conflict dyads sign peace agreements. Future quantitative research on this topic requires more nuanced measures of the conditions under which conflict parties shift from unilateral to joint decisionmaking.

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  • 14.
    Döring, Stefan
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Mustasilta, Katariina
    Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA).
    Spatial Patterns of Communal Violence in sub-Saharan Africa2023In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Communal violence is a major source of insecurity within and across borders, sparking significant displacement flows and disturbing livelihoods. While conflict literature has shed light onto its causes, the existing research has paid little systematic attention to the spatial dynamics of communal violence. We distinguish between spillover of violence and spillover of predictors. Spillover of violence is defined as communal violence occurring as a direct response to communal violence in a nearby location. Spillover of predictors describes instances of communal violence that occur due to nearby conflict-inducing factors. With regard to the former, we argue that violence in one area breeds violence in the neighboring areas. The latter we study as communal violence resulting through proximity to violence-inducing predictors such as drought. Applying spatial models, we test these arguments with data on incidences of communal violence for Sub-Saharan Africa (1990–2014). Our results demonstrate that communal violence explains nearby communal violence through different spillover processes. We also find evidence for an increase in violence due to exposure from neighborhood droughts as well as other conflict-inducing factors.

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  • 15.
    Eck, Kristine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The law of the land: Communal conflict and legal authority2014In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 51, no 4, p. 441-454Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Common notions about the source of communal land conflict in Africa have long explained it as growing out of conditions of environmental scarcity. This article argues instead that the institutional structure of the legal system is central to understanding which countries are prone to experience communal land conflict. When competing customary and modern jurisdictions coexist in countries inhabited by mixed identity groups, the conflicting sources of legal authority lead to insecurity about which source of law will prevail. Because the source of law is contested, conflict parties cannot trust the legal system to predictably adjudicate disputes, which encourages the use of extrajudicial vigilante measures. Using new data on communal violence in West Africa, this argument is examined for the period 1990-2009. The results show that in countries where competing jurisdictions exist, communal land conflict is 200-350% more likely. These findings suggest that researchers should consider the role of legal institutions and processes in relation to social unrest and collective violence.

  • 16.
    Eck, Kristine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The origins of policing institutions: Legacies of colonial insurgency2018In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 55, no 2, p. 147-160Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article examines the impact of colonial-era armed conflict on contemporary institutions. It argues that when British colonial administrators were faced with armed insurrection they responded with institutional reform of the police, and that the legacy of these reforms lives on today. Violent opposition prompted the British colonial administration to expand entrance opportunities for local inhabitants in order to collect intelligence needed to prosecute a counterinsurgency campaign. This investment in human capital and institutional reform remained when the colonial power departed; as a result, countries which experienced colonial-era conflict have more efficient policing structures today. I demonstrate how this worked in practice during the Malayan Emergency, 1948–60. Archival data from Malaysia show that local inhabitants were recruited into the police force in greater numbers and were provided with training which they would not have received had there been no insurgency. This process was consolidated and reproduced upon independence in path-dependent ways. To expand the empirical domain, I statistically explore new archival data collected from the UK National Archives on police financing across colonial territories. The results show that armed insurgency during the colonial era is associated with higher percentages of police expenditure during the colonial era and higher perceived levels of contemporary policing capacity.

  • 17.
    Eck, Kristine
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    One-Sided Violence Against Civilians in War: Insights from New Fatality Data2007In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 44, no 2, p. 233-246Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents new data on the direct and deliberate killings of civilians, called one-sided violence, in intrastate armed conflicts, 19892004. These data contribute to the present state of quantitative research on violence against civilians in three important respects: the data provide actual estimates of civilians killed, the data are collected annually and the data are provided for both governments and rebel groups. Using these data, general trends and patterns are presented, showing that the post-Cold War era is characterized by periods of fairly low-scale violence punctuated by occasional sharp increases in violence against civilians. Furthermore, rebels tend to be more violent on the whole, while governments commit relatively little violence except in those few years which see mass killings. The article then examines some factors that have been found to predict genocide and evaluates how they correlate with one-sided violence as conceptualized here. A U-shaped correlation between regime type and one-sided violence is identified: while autocratic governments undertake higher levels of one-sided violence than other regime types, rebels are more violent in democratic countries.

  • 18.
    Elfversson, Emma
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Providing security or protecting interests?: Government interventions in violent communal conflicts in Africa2015In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 52, no 6, p. 791-805Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    What factors drive governments’ decisions to intervene in local conflicts within their borders? Communal conflict – that is, organized violence between non-state groups that are mobilized along a shared communal identity – kills thousands each year and severely impacts local livelihoods, at times threatening to spread and affect entire regions. Given the state’s assumed monopoly over the legitimate use of force, we should expect the concerned governments to be critical actors of the overall effort to restore peace in cases of local communal conflict, but empirical evidence indicates that central states tend to only intervene in some cases but not in others. This phenomenon has so far been understudied and the variations in states’ efforts to manage these conflicts remain unexplained. This article presents the first quantitative study of state intervention in communal conflicts. Building on existing scholarly work, I argue that state intervention is explained by a combination of strategic interests and state capacity, and that interests related to ethnic constituencies and land control play an important part in explaining governments’ strategies. These propositions find support in a statistical analysis covering sub-Saharan Africa from 1989 to 2010.

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  • 19.
    Elfversson, Emma
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government.
    Gusic, Ivan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government.
    Meye, Marie-Therese
    University of Mannheim.
    The bridge to violence – Mapping and understanding conflict-related violence in postwar Mitrovica2023In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    How can attention to spatial dynamics improve our understanding of where, how, and why conflict-related violence (CRV) concentrates within postwar cities such as Mitrovica? Like many other postwar cities, Mitrovica – one of Kosovo’s largest cities – remains affected by violence connected to the preceding war. This violence is not equally distributed across the city but rather concentrates to certain flashpoints while other sites are comparatively calm(er). To date, however, research on postwar cities has not fully explained such patterns, partly due to limitations in microlevel data. In this article we rely on novel georeferenced data on CRV, in combination with in-depth fieldwork, to map CRV in Mitrovica and explore the causes for its spatial clustering. Using this approach, we show that CRV concentrates at Mitrovica’s Main Bridge and explore this concentration using relational space as an analytical lens. The analysis contributes new insights into patterns of violence in Mitrovica, demonstrates the value of combining systematic data on the patterns of CRV with in-depth exploration into its underlying dynamics, and contributes to existing research on Mitrovica as well as on postwar cities and postwar violence more broadly.

  • 20.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Buying Peace? Oil Wealth, Corruption and Civil War, 1985-992009In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 462, no 2, p. 199-218Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article argues that, contrary to received wisdom, political corruption is not necessarily associated with a higher risk of civil war in oil-rich states. Political corruption can be used to accommodate opposition and placate restive groups by offering private privilege in exchange for political loyalty. Since oil wealth is associated with large rents accruing in state treasuries, it provides an economic foundation for such clientelist rule. This article thus argues that oil-rich governments can use political corruption to buy support from key segments of society, effectively outspending other entrepreneurs of violence. Based on a logit analysis of civil war onsets, 1985-99, the article finds support for this 'co-optation argument'. A negative and statistically significant interaction term between oil production and political corruption is consistent across different models and robust to a number of specifications. While both variables per se increase the risk of conflict overall, higher levels of corruption seem to weaken the harmful impact of oil on the risk of civil war. This finding suggests the need for a more nuanced understanding of the relationship between natural resource wealth, governance and armed conflict. Political corruption has prolonged poverty and bred economic and political inequality in many oil-rich states, but it has also helped cement powerful alliances with a stake in the continuation of the corrupt regimes.

  • 21.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Royal Swedish Academy of Letters, History and Antiquities; Peace Res Inst Oslo, Oslo, Norway..
    Political party strength and electoral violence2020In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 57, no 1, p. 140-155, article id 0022343319885177Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Existing research on the causes of electoral violence has focused on structural determinants and election-specific characteristics but has paid less attention to the role of political agents that contest elections. This study addresses this gap by examining the relationship between the organizational strength of political parties and the risk of electoral violence. The study argues that strong political parties enhance the prospect for peaceful electoral dynamics for two reasons. First, having strong party organizations reduce incentives for violent electoral manipulation because these organizations enable more cost-efficient ways to mobilize voters. Second, strong party organizations constrain political actors from deploying electoral violence, both at the leadership and grassroot levels. The relationship between political party strength and electoral violence is studied by combining global data on the overall strength of political parties in the polity with data on violence across all national elections from 1946 to 2010. The statistical analysis accounts for a number of potentially confounding variables related to formal political institutions and election-specific characteristics. The results point to a statistically significant and substantively important association between strong political parties and a reduced risk of violent electoral conflict.

  • 22.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. PRIO, Oslo, Norway.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The Rise of Rebel Contenders: Barriers to entry and fragmentation in civil wars2018In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 55, no 5, p. 551-565Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [sv]

    Fragmentation of armed opposition movements through the rise of new rebel groups constitutes a significant challenge to conflict termination and peacebuilding. Yet, the question of why some rebel movements remain cohesive whereas others see a number of contending groups during the course of the armed conflict has received limited attention in existing research. This article addresses this gap by analyzing the determinants of the rise of rebel contenders in intrastate armed conflicts worldwide, 1975–2013. The theoretical framework focuses on barriers to entry, that is, variations in the costs and disadvantages that must be borne by nascent rebel contenders that are not borne to the same extent by incumbent rebel groups. The study proposes that strong social networks underpinning incumbent groups create structural barriers to entry for nascent groups by aggravating challenges of organization building. It further suggests that the interaction between incumbent groups and the government influences strategic barriers to entry as changes in government policies produce windows of opportunity for nascent groups to form. Consistent with these arguments, the study finds that when incumbent groups have strong networks – because rebels either tap into ethnic networks or draw on a leftist ideology – the risk of fragmentation is lower. Furthermore, when the government accommodates groups, through either negotiations or democratic concessions, the risk of fragmentation increases.

  • 23.
    Forsberg, Erika
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Polarization and Ethnic Conflict in a Widened Strategic Setting2008In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 45, no 2, p. 283-300Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ethnic groups and conflicts often transcend country borders, indicating that notions of relative strength and resolve may also surpass such borders. This study focuses on the association between ethnic polarization and conflict in a widened strategic environment, encapsulating each state that experiences ethnic conflict and its neighboring states, and involving contagion processes. Two claims are presented. First, when a state experiences ethnic conflict, neighboring states that are ethnically polarized are more likely to also experience ethnic conflict. Second, when a group involved in ethnic conflict has a kinship tie to a group in a neighboring state, the latter group is increasingly likely to be inspired to challenge the government and end up in ethnic conflict. This should be especially likely if the group resides in a state characterized by ethnic polarization. To evaluate these claims, this article employs logit regression on a global dataset covering the period from 1989 to 2004. The empirical analysis supports the first claim; polarized states are indeed associated with an increased likelihood of contagion processes. The findings also demonstrate that kinship links make contagion more likely; however, this effect is not conditioned by the level of ethnic polarization. The results are robust to a series of alternative specifications. In conclusion, these findings point to the importance of incorporating a widened strategic setting in the analysis when examining the association between ethnic polarization and civil conflict.

     

  • 24.
    Forsberg, Erika
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Review of: Lacina, Bethany: Rival Claims: Ethnic Violence and Territorial Autonomy under Indian Federalism2017In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, ISSN 978-0-472-13024-5Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 25.
    Geelmuyden Rød, Espen
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hegre, Håvard
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Research Institute Oslo.
    Leis, Maxine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Predicting armed conflict using protest data2023In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 0, no 0Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Protest is a low-intensity form of political conflict that can precipitate intrastate armed conflict. Data on protests should therefore be informative in systems that provide early warnings of armed conflict. However, since most protests do not escalate to armed conflict, we first need theory to inform our prediction models. We identify three theoretical explanations relating to protest-repression dynamics, political institutions and economic development as the basis for our models. Based on theory, we operationalize nine models and leverage the political Violence Early Warning System (ViEWS) to generate subnational forecasts for intrastate armed conflict in Africa. Results show that protest data substantially improves conflict incidence and onset predictions compared to baseline models that account for conflict history. Moreover, the results underline the centrality of theory for conflict forecasting: our theoretically informed protest models outperform naive models that treat all protests equally.

  • 26.
    Hammarström, Mats
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Dieter Senghaas: Pioneer of Peace and Development Research2013In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 50, no 3, p. 431-432Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 27.
    Harbom, Lotta
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Högbladh, Stina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Wallensteen, Peter
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Armed Conflict and Peace Agreements2006In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 43, no 5, p. 617-631Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2005, there were 31 ongoing conflicts, down by 1 from 2004. Notable for 2005 as well as for the previous year is that, while there were no major fluctuations in the number of conflicts, there were numerous changes when it comes to the conflicts listed. While ten of the conflicts recorded for 2004 were no longer active in 2005, nine conflicts restarted, four with action taken by new rebel groups and five by previously recorded actors. A total of 231 armed conflicts have been recorded since the end of World War II and 121 after the end of the Cold War. In one-third of the conflicts recorded after the Cold War, the conflicting parties have concluded peace agreements, solving, regulating, or deciding the incompatibility. Of the 144 accords, 70% were signed in conflicts over government; many of them were part of a peace process containing more than one agreement. In conflicts over government, the most common provision for resolving the incompatibility was the holding of elections. In conflicts over territory, the agreements often established local governance over the disputed territory.

  • 28.
    Harbom, Lotta
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Melander, Erik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Wallensteen, Peter
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Dyadic Dimensions of Armed Conflict, 1946-20072008In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 45, no 5, p. 697-710Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2007, 34 armed conflicts were active worldwide, up by one from 2006 and by five from 2003, the year with the lowest number of active armed conflicts since the 1970s. While the number of conflicts increased, the number of wars, i.e. conflicts with over 1,000 battle-related deaths in a year, dropped by one to four. Five of the conflicts from 2006 were no longer active in 2007, but during the year, two previously recorded conflicts (in Mali and Pakistan) were restarted by new actors and two (in Angola and Peru) by previously recorded rebel groups. For the first time since 2004, two new conflicts were recorded: a conflict over governmental power in Niger and a territorial conflict in DRC. A conflict may involve one or more dyads or pairs of warring parties. In the 236 conflicts active since 1946, 487 dyads have been recorded in the new UCDP Dyadic Dataset. While most intrastate conflicts involve a single rebel group fighting the government, in 30 of the conflicts two or more dyads were active simultaneously. In 2002 and 2003, over 30% of the active conflicts involved more than one rebel group. The number of active rebel groups and changes in the set of groups are important elements of the complexity of any armed conflict, and the study of these aspects should be greatly facilitated with the new dataset. By adding the dyadic dimension to the study of conflicts, the analysis of a range of phenomena that have hardly been captured by previously available data is made possible.

  • 29.
    Harbom, Lotta
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Wallensteen, Peter
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Armed Conflict, 1946-20082009In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 46, no 4, p. 577-587Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 30.
    Harbom, Lotta
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Wallensteen, Peter
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Armed Conflict, 1989–20062007In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 44, no 5, p. 623-634Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2006, 32 armed conflicts were active, a figure that has remained constant for three years. The decline in armed conflict observed through most of the post-Cold War period has ceased, at least temporarily. Many of the conflicts active in 2006 have a long history which may have made them more entrenched and thus more difficult to solve. In fact, in contrast to the situation in the early 1990s, no new conflicts have erupted in the last two years. No interstate conflicts were active in 2006, but five of the intrastate conflicts were internationalized. While four of the conflicts recorded for 2005 were no longer active in 2006, four conflicts restarted, two with actions taken by new rebel groups and two by previously recorded actors.

  • 31.
    Harbom, Lotta
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Wallensteen, Peter
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Armed Conflicts, 1946-20082009In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 46, no 4, p. 577-587Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2008, the number of active armed conflicts was 36, up by one from 2007. Over the past few years, the number of active conflicts has not seen any drastic changes from one year to the next. However, the number of armed conflicts has increased by nearly one-quarter since 2003, which was the year with the lowest number of active armed conflicts since the 1970s. While the number of conflicts continued to increase, the number of wars (i.e. conflicts with over 1,000 battle-related deaths) remained at a very low level, with only five recorded for 2008. Four conflicts listed in 2007 were no longer active in 2008, but during the year, two conflicts were restarted by previously recorded actors (in Burundi and in Georgia). Furthermore, three new conflicts erupted, one of which was fought between states (Djibouti-Eritrea). Thus, the record-long four-year interlude 2004-07 with no interstate conflict was broken.

  • 32.
    Hegre, Håvard
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
    Democracy and armed conflict2014In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 51, no 2, p. 159-172Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The article reviews the literature on the relationship between democracy and armed conflict, internal as well as interstate. The review points to several similarities between how democratic institutions affect both conflict types. It summarizes the main empirical findings and discusses the most prominent explanations as well as the most important objections raised to the finding, empirically and theoretically. To a large degree, the empirical finding that pairs of democratic states have a lower risk of interstate conflict than other pairs holds up, as does the conclusion that consolidated democracies have less conflict than semi-democracies. The most critical challenge to both conclusions is the position that both democracy and peace are due to pre-existing socio-economic conditions. I conclude that this objection has considerable leverage, but it also seems clear that economic development is unlikely to bring about lasting peace alone, without the formalization embedded in democratic institutions.

  • 33.
    Hegre, Håvard
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
    Allansson, Marie
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Basedau, Matthias
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    Colaresi, Michael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. University of Pittsburgh.
    Croicu, Mihai
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Fjelde, Hanne
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hoyles, Frederick
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Högbladh, Stina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Jansen, Remco
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Mouhleb, Naima
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Muhammad, Sayyed Auwn
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
    Olafsdottir, Gudlaug
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Petrova, Kristina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Randahl, David
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Rød, Espen Geelmuyden
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Schneider, Gerald
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. University of Konstanz.
    von Uexkull, Nina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Vestby, Jonas
    ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system2019In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 56, no 2, p. 155-174Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS is built as an ensemble of constituent models designed to optimize its predictions. Each of these represents a theme that the conflict research literature suggests is relevant, or implements a specific statistical/machine-learning approach. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to new conflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and Northern Mozambique. The subsequent evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the long-term behavior of established political violence, as well as diffusion processes such as the spread of violence in Cameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to non-public conflict-warning systems, and also serves as a reference against which future improvements can be evaluated.

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  • 34.
    Hegre, Håvard
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Res Inst Oslo PRIO, Oslo, Norway..
    Bell, Curtis
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. US Naval War Coll, Int Programs Dept, Newport, RI USA..
    Colaresi, Michael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Univ Pittsburgh, Polit Sci, Pittsburgh, PA 15260 USA..
    Croicu, Mihai
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Hoyles, Frederick
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Jansen, Remco
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Leis, Maxine Ria
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Lindqvist-McGowan, Angelica
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Randahl, David
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Rød, Espen Geelmuyden
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Vesco, Paola
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    ViEWS(2020): Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System2021In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 58, no 3, p. 599-611Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents an update to the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System. This update introduces (1) a new infrastructure for training, evaluating, and weighting models that allows us to more optimally combine constituent models into ensembles, and (2) a number of new forecasting models that contribute to improve overall performance, in particular with respect to effectively classifying high- and low-risk cases. Our improved evaluation procedures allow us to develop models that specialize in either the immediate or the more distant future. We also present a formal, 'retrospective' evaluation of how well ViEWS has done since we started publishing our forecasts from July 2018 up to December 2019. Our metrics show that ViEWS is performing well when compared to previous out-of-sample forecasts for the 2015-17 period. Finally, we present our new forecasts for the January 2020-December 2022 period. We continue to predict a near-constant situation of conflict in Nigeria, Somalia, and DRC, but see some signs of decreased risk in Cameroon and Mozambique.

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  • 35.
    Hegre, Håvard
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. PRIO, Oslo, Norway..
    Metternich, Nils W.
    UCL, Dept Polit Sci, London WC1E 6BT, England..
    Nygard, Havard Mokleiv
    PRIO, Oslo, Norway..
    Wucherpfennig, Julian
    Hertie Sch Governance, Berlin, Germany..
    Introduction: Forecasting in peace research2017In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 54, no 2, p. 113-124Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Prediction and forecasting have now fully reached peace and conflict research. We define forecasting as predictions about unrealized outcomes given model estimates from realized data, and predictions more generally as the assignment of probability distributions to realized or unrealized outcomes. Increasingly, scholars present within-and out-of-sample prediction results in their publications and sometimes even forecasts for unrealized, future outcomes. The articles in this special issue demonstrate the ability of current approaches to forecast events of interest and contributes to the formulation of best practices for forecasting within peace research. We highlight the role of forecasting for theory evaluation and as a bridge between academics and policymakers, summarize the contributions in the special issue, and provide some thoughts on how research on forecasting in peace research should proceed. We suggest some best practices, noting the importance of theory development, interpretability of models, replicability of results, and data collection.

  • 36.
    Hegre, Håvard
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. PRIO, Oslo, Norway.
    Mokleiv Nygard, Håvard
    PRIO, Oslo, Norway..
    Flaten Raeder, Ranveig
    Off Auditor Gen Norway, Oslo, Norway..
    Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: A dynamic simulation approach2017In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 54, no 2, p. 243-261Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Several studies show that internal armed conflict breeds conflict by exacerbating conditions that increase the chances of war breaking out again. Empirically, this 'conflict trap' works through four pathways: conflicts increase the likelihood of continuation, recurrence, escalation, and diffusion of conflict. Past empirical studies have underestimated the scope and intensity of the conflict trap since they consider the impact of conflict only through one of these pathways and rarely across sufficiently long time periods. This article shows that simulation and forecasting techniques are useful and indeed necessary to quantify the total, aggregated effect of the conflict trap, over long time periods and across countries. We develop a country-year statistical model that allows estimating the probability of no conflict, minor conflict, and major conflict, and the probabilities of transition between these states. A set of variables denoting the immediate and more distant conflict history of the country are used as endogenous predictors in the simulated forecasts. Another set of variables shown to be robustly associated with armed conflict are treated as exogenous predictors. We show that the conflict trap is even more severe than earlier studies have indicated. For instance, if a large low-income country with no previous conflicts is simulated to have two to three years of conflict over the 201518 period, we find that it will have nine more years of conflict over the 2019-40 period than if peace holds up to 2018. Conversely, if a large low-income country that has had major conflict with more than 1,000 battle-related deaths in several of the past ten years succeeds in containing violence to minor conflict over the 2015-18 period, we find that it will experience five fewer years of conflict in the subsequent 20 years than if violence continues unabated.

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  • 37.
    Himmelstrand, Ulf
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences.
    Tribalism, Nationalism, Rank-Equilibration, and Social Structure: A Theoretical Interpretation of Some Socio-political Processes in Southern Nigeria1969In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 6, no 2, p. 81-103Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Some aspects of Nigerian nationalism - particularly as espoused by the Ibo elite in the struggle for Nigerian independence and immediately after -- are here interpreted as an alternative or supplementary response to the same kinds of structural strains which have generated impulses to so-called tribalism. Rank-equilibration theory is utilized to provide the necessary causal links. Other approaches are also suggested to amount for the emergence of structural strains, and for the political exploitation of tribalist responses to such strains. Further discussed are a number of attendant micro- and macro-circumstances which might explain why rank-equilibration sometimes stimulates tribalism and secessionism, at other times seems to increase the appeals of a broader nationalism. Finally, it is maintained that a more durable form of nationalism appears only when based not on individual rank-equilibrating responses, but on the acceptance of common rules within a differentiated and well-balanced system of social exchange such as that hopefully emerging in the new twelve-state federal structure of Nigeria.

  • 38.
    Hinkkainen Elliott, Kaisa
    et al.
    University of Leeds.
    Kreutz, Joakim
    Department of Political Science, Stockholm University.
    Natural resource wars in the shadow of the future: Explaining spatial dynamics of violence during civil war2019In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 56, no 4, p. 499-513Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous studies on natural resources and civil wars find that the presence of natural resources increases both civil conflict risk and duration. At the same time, belligerents often cooperate over resource extraction, suggesting a temporal variation in the contest over this subnational space. This study argues that parties fight over natural resources primarily when they expect that the conflict is about to end, as the importance of controlling them increases in the post-conflict setting. In contrast, belligerents that anticipate a long war have incentives to avoid fighting near natural resources since excessive violence will hurt the extraction, trade, and subsequent taxation that provide conflict actors with income from the resource. We test our argument using yearly and monthly grid-cell-level data on African civil conflicts for the period 1989–2008 and find support for our expected spatial variation. Using whether negotiations are underway as an indicator about warring parties’ expectations on conflict duration, we find that areas with natural resources in general experience less intense fighting than other areas, but during negotiations these very areas witness most of the violence. We further find that the spatial shift in violence occurs immediately when negotiations are opened. A series of difference-in-difference estimations show a visible shift of violence towards areas rich in natural resources in the first three months after parties have initiated talks. Our findings are relevant for scholarship on understanding and predicting the trajectories of micro-level civil conflict violence, and for policymakers seeking to prevent peace processes being derailed.

  • 39.
    Hultman, Lisa
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    UN peace operations and protection of civilians: Cheap talk or norm implementation?2013In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 50, no 1, p. 59-73Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Protection of civilians is now at the forefront of the responsibilities of the international community. There is a strong international norm that civilian populations should be protected from violence. But how committed is the United Nations to acting in line with this norm? I argue that the UN Security Council (UNSC) has an interest in demonstrating that it takes violence against civilians seriously. Through a broadened security agenda including human security, the legitimacy and the credibility of the UNSC hinges on its ability to act as a guarantor of civilian protection. As a consequence, the UN is more likely to deploy peace operations in conflicts where the warring parties target the civilian population. The argument is supported by a statistical examination of all internal armed conflicts in 1989-2006. The results show that the likelihood of a UN peace operation is higher in conflicts with high levels of violence against civilians, but this effect is mainly visible after 1999. This year marked a shift in the global security agenda and it was also when the UNSC first issued an explicit mandate to protect civilians. Conflicts with high levels of violence against civilians are also more likely to get operations with robust mandates. This suggests that the UNSC is not just paying lip service to the protection norm, but that it actually acts to implement it.

  • 40.
    Johansson, Karin
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Talk of shame: Conflict-related sexual violence and bilateral criticism within the UNIn: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) is an increasingly consequential crime to perpetrate – at least if we limit our view to reactions within multilateral institutions such as the United Nations (UN) Security Council. Turning to the state-led forum for human rights: the UN Universal Periodic Review (UPR), this study instead uncovers sparse and highly selective condemnation of CRSV. By extracting data on all bilateral shaming relating to sexual violence in the UPR since its inception in 2008, this article demonstrates that only 4% of all governments take the opportunity to condemn sexual aggressors. The findings should adjust our expectations on progress rate within the policy field of CRSV and advance our understanding of the challenges tainting international negotiations on the topic.

  • 41.
    Karlén, Niklas
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    The legacy of foreign patrons: External state support and conflict recurrence2017In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 54, no 4, p. 499-512Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Why do some armed conflicts that have ended experience renewed fighting while others do not? Previous research onconflict recurrence has approached this question by looking at domestic factors such as how the war was fought, howit ended or factors associated with its aftermath. With the exception of the literature on third-party securityguarantees, the influence of outside actors has often been overlooked. This article explores the role of external statesand suggests when and how their involvement is likely to affect the probability of renewed warfare. The mainargument is that the legacy of outside support creates an external support structure that affects the previouscombatants’ willingness as well as their opportunities to remobilize. This means that armed conflicts with externalstate support will experience a greater likelihood of recurrence compared to other conflicts which did not see externalsupport. The theory is tested using Cox proportional hazards models on global data of intrastate armed conflicts1975–2009. The findings suggest that external support to rebels increases the risk of conflict recurrence in the shortterm as groups receive or anticipate renewed assistance. The results also indicate that it is more important for rebelgroups to have had enduring support over the years in the previous conflict rather than access to multiple statesponsors. External support provided to governments is not associated with conflict recurrence.

  • 42.
    Klaus, Kathleen
    Department of Politics, University of San Francisco.
    Raising the stakes: Land titling and electoral stability in Kenya2020In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 57, no 1, p. 30-45Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    How does large-scale land reform affect electoral stability and the prospects for election violence? While scholars have theorized elite-level logics of land distribution, few studies analyze the effects of land reform on the attitudes of ordinary citizens, and the implications such reforms have for electoral violence. The article uses an original survey and qualitative interviews in coastal Kenya to examine the effects of the Kenyan government’s recent land titling campaign, the most ambitious and extensive since independence. It theorizes and tests the micro-mechanisms through which the selective distribution of land rights in the pre-electoral period heightens or lowers the stakes of an electoral outcome by altering levels of political trust and perceived threat. Results indicate that title deed beneficiaries are more likely to trust political institutions than non-beneficiaries. Yet, while title deed recipients are more likely to trust state institutions, they are also more likely to fear the electoral process compared to non-beneficiaries. The findings reveal how the perceived stakes of an election can vary across local spaces. Where political trust is low and threat is high, citizens may view elections as particularly high-stakes events and, thus, may be more willing to take on the costs of participation in violence to ensure their preferred political outcome, or to defend themselves against anticipated attacks.

  • 43.
    Klaus, Kathleen
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Mitchell, Matthew I
    School of Conflict Studies, Saint Paul University.
    Land grievances and the mobilization of electoral violence: Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya2015In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 52, no 5, p. 622-635Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent studies have asked why elites resort to violence, yet many overlook the process and dynamics of mobilizing violence. How do politicians convince their supporters to fight? This article argues that in multi-ethnic and democratizing societies where land and property rights are weak and politicized, land grievances can provide leaders with a powerful tool to organize electoral violence. We develop a theory to show how land grievances can give rise to violent mobilization when leaders frame elections as a threat to the land security of supporters or an opportunity to reclaim land or strengthen land rights. Conversely, land grievances are ineffective when citizens do not believe that elections signal a credible threat to their land security or an opportunity to strengthen land rights. We further specify how the type of land grievance shapes the logic and form of violent action. Grievances based on land insecurity shape a pre-emptive logic of violence, while grievances based on competing land claims often shape an opportunistic logic of electoral violence. The article examines the validity of our theory using a comparative case study between zones of escalation and non-escalation of violence during post-electoral crises in Kenya (2007–08) and Côte d’Ivoire (2010–11). By observing the variation between positive and negative cases, the article identifies factors that foment and constrain the mobilization of election violence.

  • 44.
    Kreutz, Joakim
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    How and when armed conflicts end: Introducing the UCDP Conflict Termination dataset2010In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 47, no 2, p. 243-250Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents new data on the start and end dates and the means of termination for armed conflicts, 1946-2005. These data contribute to quantitative research on conflict resolution and recurrence in three important respects: the data cover both interstate and intrastate armed conflicts, the data cover low-intensity conflicts, and the data provide information on a broad range of termination outcomes. In order to disaggregate the UCDP-PRIO Armed Conflict dataset into multiple analytical units, this dataset introduces the concept of conflict episodes, defined as years of continuous use of armed force in a conflict. Using these data, general trends and patterns are presented, showing that conflicts do not exclusively end with decisive outcomes such as victory or peace agreement but more often under unclear circumstances where fighting simply ceases. This pattern is consistent across different types of conflict, as is the finding that victories are more common in conflicts with short duration. The article then examines some factors that have been found to predict civil war recurrence and explores whether using the new dataset produces similar results. This exercise offers a number of interesting new insights and finds that the determinants for civil war recurrence identified in previous research are sensitive to alternate formulations of conflict termination data. The findings suggest that intrastate conflicts are less likely to recur after government victories or after the deployment of peacekeepers. If the previous conflict is fought with rebels aiming for total control over government or if the belligerents mobilized along ethnic lines, the risk of recurrence increases. The discrepancy in findings with previous research indicates the need for further study of conflict resolution and recurrence, for which this dataset will be useful.

  • 45.
    Kreutz, Joakim
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Swedish Institute of International Affairs.
    The war that wasn't there: Managing unclear cases in conflict data2015In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 52, no 1, p. 120-124Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    When collecting data, some observations will always be hard to confidently classify in accordance with stated definitions of war, civil conflict, or political violence. This research note draws on the experiences of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program in the last decade in managing such unclear cases. After explaining the difference between unclear and non-cases, I describe the data generating process and how this uncertainty is distributed over time in the data. This exercise reveals that the 1980s may have been more conflict-filled than the 1990s, challenging arguments about the stability of the bipolar global order as well as the sudden ‘rise’ of warfare in the immediate post-Cold War era. The final section suggests different ways that researchers may use existing information regarding unclear cases as a way to conceptualize the nature of civil strife without having to engage in additional data collection.

  • 46.
    Kreutz, Joakim
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government.
    Cárdenas, Magda Lorena
    Department of Political Science, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
    The Women and Men that Make Peace: Introducingt the Mediating Individuals (M-IND) dataset2023In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents new data on the individuals who mediate (M-IND) in all active UCDP dyads and lethal MIDs, 1989—2019. The dataset contributes to the systematic study of conflict management in several important respects: it covers both international and internal conflicts, it covers low-intensity violence, and it provides information on individual mediators, who appointed him/her, and type of mediation. Besides presenting the data collection and descriptive statistics, the article engages with the literatures on multiparty mediation and women, peace and security. M-IND shows that women more commonly are appointed as mediators by non-governmental organizations than by states and international organizations. Our analysis suggest that greater equality in mediation efforts correlate with the use of more varied mediation strategies and are associated with a greater chance of reaching peace agreements.

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  • 47.
    Lilja, Jannie
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Beyond Settlement: Making Peace Last After Civil Conflict2010In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 47, no 1, p. 103-103Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 48.
    Lilja, Jannie
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Shields, Vanessa E & Nicholas D J Baldwin, eds, 2008. Beyond Settlement: Making Peace Last After Civil Conflict. Madison-Teaneck, NJ: Fairleigh Dickinson University Press. 413 pp. ISBN 97808386418352010In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 47, no 1, p. 103-103Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 49.
    Lindberg Bromley, Sara
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Introducing the UCDP Peacemakers at Risk Dataset, Sub-Saharan Africa 1989-2009In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 50.
    Lindberg Bromley, Sara
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Introducing the UCDP Peacemakers at Risk dataset, sub-Saharan Africa 1989-20092018In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 55, no 1, p. 122-131Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article introduces new event data on violence against peacekeepers deployed to conflict-affected countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 1989 and 2009. While the practice of peacekeeping is often described as fraught with risk, a shortage of data has left scholars poorly equipped to study this important phenomenon. The Peacemakers at Risk (PAR) dataset records reported incidences of violence resulting in direct peacekeeping personnel fatalities, injuries and kidnappings. Information on the timing, location, outcomes and actors implicated is provided for each recorded event, including information on the nationalities of violence-affected peacekeepers. The dataset also charts reports of fatal violence by peacekeepers. This enables the study of peacekeepers' use of force and provides a new lens for examining wider questions related to peacekeeping effects and conflict dynamics. Peace operations deployed by the UN as well as other peacekeeping actors are included, allowing for a rich dataset that reflects today's diverse peacekeeping landscape. The PAR dataset makes possible the evaluation of reigning assumptions regarding peacekeeping intervention and risk, and allows scholars to pose research questions regarding the causes, characteristics and consequences of peacekeeper violence, within and across interventions. This article introduces the criteria and procedures guiding the data collection and presents the data. The article also highlights key patterns emerging from the dataset and identifies a number of potential applications and avenues for future research.

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