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  • 1.
    Jarstad, Anna
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government. Umeå universitet.
    Nilsson, Desirée
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Making and keeping promises: regime type and powersharing pacts in peace agreements2018In: Peace and Change, ISSN 0149-0508, E-ISSN 1468-0130, Vol. 43, no 2, p. 1-27Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Power sharing is increasingly recognized as an important tool forcreating sustainable peace in war-torn societies. However, we have limitedknowledge concerning why political, territorial, and military power-sharingpacts are reached and implemented. This article addresses this gap by providinga global study examining the signing and implementation of powersharing pactsin intrastate armed conflicts. We focus on how the type of political regime caninfluence these choices and theorize about the strategic incentives for warringparties in different types of regimes to sign and implement different pacts.Our large-N analysis is based on data on power-sharing provisions in eighty-threepeace accords in forty intrastate armed conflicts between 1989 and 2004. Inline with our theoretical expectations, we find that political and militarypacts are more likely to be signed in autocracies, whereas territorial pactsare more common in democracies. Somewhat surprisingly, we find no difference inthe implementation patterns across regimes.

  • 2.
    Kreutz, Joakim
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Department of Political Science, Stockholm University.
    New Rebels in Postconflict Settings: The Principal-Agent Dilemma of Peacebuilding2018In: Peace and Change, ISSN 0149-0508, E-ISSN 1468-0130, Vol. 43, no 2, p. 218-247Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article explores the processes that lead to different types of civil war outbreak in postconflict societies, combining quantitative analysis with case studies of Myanmar and Sierra Leone to disaggregate situations in which former rebels resume fighting from those when new rebels emerge in the postconflict environment. The analysis, based in principal–agent theory, illuminates how relations between the government and ex‐rebel elites, group cohesion among rebels, and the relationship between the government and the ex‐combatants all can lead to resumed civil war. Its findings suggest that victories and settled conflicts are the most important outcome for preventing conflict recurrence by former rebels, but do not prevent the rise of new insurgencies. Moreover, the absence of government repression emerges as the factor most likely to reduce the risk of new rebellion.

  • 3.
    Svensson, Isak
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Lundgren, Magnus
    Stockholm University.
    From Revolution to Resolution:: Exploring Third‐Party Mediation in Nonviolent Uprisings2018In: Peace and Change, ISSN 0149-0508, E-ISSN 1468-0130, Vol. 43, no 3, p. 271-291Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Nonviolent protest movements have been prevalent in the last decades. While such movements aim for peaceful change, they are frequently followed by civil war. Previous research has shown that outcomes of nonviolent protests can be influenced by mediation, but because most previous research on conflict mediation has predominately examined armed conflicts, little is known about when and how mediation occurs. We argue that mediation in nonviolent uprisings is more likely when social conflicts generate negative externalities for the outside world, incentivizing third parties to act and conflict parties to accept their terms. After assessing the scope of the empirical field and identifying anchoring points for future research, we examine data on nonviolent campaigns between 1970 and 2014, investigating patterns in mediation incidence across time and space by situational characteristics, and by the origins of the mediator. We find that protest movements with a higher risk of violent escalation, marked by radicalism or state repression, are more likely to be mediated, and that mediation of nonviolent disputes has shifted from domestic to international mediators. We conclude by discussing theoretical implications for the field as well as suggesting some important policy and practice implications for the mediation of nonviolent conflicts.

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