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  • 1.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England..
    Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 9, 1652-1665 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.

  • 2. Breinl, Korbinian
    Driving a lumped hydrological model with precipitation output from weather generators of different complexity2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 8, 1395-1414 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper deals with the question of whether a lumped hydrological model driven with lumped daily precipitation time series from a univariate single-site weather generator can produce equally good results compared to using a multivariate multi-site weather generator, where synthetic precipitation is first generated at multiple sites and subsequently lumped. Three different weather generators were tested: a univariate “Richardson type” model, an adapted univariate Richardson type model with an improved reproduction of the autocorrelation of precipitation amounts and a semi-parametric multi-site weather generator. The three modelling systems were evaluated in two Alpine study areas by comparing the hydrological output with respect to monthly and daily statistics as well as extreme design flows. The application of a univariate Richardson type weather generator to lumped precipitation time series requires additional attention. Established parametric distribution functions for single-site precipitation turned out to be unsuitable for lumped precipitation time series and led to a large bias in the hydrological simulations. Combining a multi-site weather generator with a hydrological model produced the least bias.

  • 3.
    Ceola, Serena
    et al.
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy..
    Montanari, Alberto
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy..
    Krueger, Tobias
    Humboldt Univ, IRI THESys, Berlin, Germany..
    Dyer, Fiona
    Univ Canberra, Inst Appl Ecol, Canberra, ACT, Australia..
    Kreibich, Heidi
    GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Potsdam, Germany..
    Westerberg, Ida
    Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol, Avon, England.;IVL Swedish Environm Res Inst, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Carr, Gemma
    Vienna Univ Technol, Ctr Water Resource Syst, Vienna, Austria..
    Cudennec, Christophe
    Agrocampus Ouest, INRA, Rennes, France..
    Elshorbagy, Amin
    Univ Saskatchewan, Dept Civil & Geol Engn, Saskatoon, SK, Canada..
    Savenije, Hubert
    Delft Univ Technol, Fac Civil Engn & Geosci, Delft, Netherlands..
    Van der Zaag, Pieter
    UNESCO IHE Inst Water Educ, Delft, Netherlands.;Delft Univ Technol, Water Resources Sect, Delft, Netherlands..
    Rosbjerg, Dan
    Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Environm Engn, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark..
    Aksoy, Hafzullah
    Istanbul Tech Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Istanbul, Turkey..
    Viola, Francesco
    Univ Cagliari, Dipartimento Ingn Civile Ambientale & Architettur, Cagliari, Italy..
    Petrucci, Guido
    Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Analyt Environm & Geo Chem AMGC, Brussels, Belgium..
    MacLeod, Kit
    James Hutton Inst, Aberdeen, Scotland..
    Croke, Barry
    Australian Natl Univ, Math Sci Inst, Canberra, ACT, Australia.;Australian Natl Univ, Integrated Catchment Assessment & Management Ctr, Fenner Sch Environm & Soc, Canberra, ACT, Australia..
    Ganora, Daniele
    Politecn Torino, Dept Environm Land & Infrastruct Engn, Turin, Italy..
    Hermans, Leon
    Delft Univ Technol, Fac Technol Policy & Management, Delft, Netherlands..
    Polo, Maria J.
    Univ Cordoba, Andalusian Inst Earth Syst Res, Res Grp Fluvial Dynam & Hydrol, Cordoba, Spain..
    Xu, Zongxue
    Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Water & Sediment Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China..
    Borga, Marco
    Univ Padua, Dipartimento Territorio & Sistemi Agro Forestali, Padua, Italy..
    Helmschrot, Jorg
    Univ Hamburg, Biodivers Evolut & Ecol Plants BEE, Hamburg, Germany.;SASSCAL Reg Secretariat, Eros, Windhoek, Namibia..
    Toth, Elena
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy..
    Ranzi, Roberto
    Univ Brescia, Dept Civil Environm Architectural Engn & Math, Brescia, Italy..
    Castellarin, Attilio
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy..
    Hurford, Anthony
    UCL, Dept Civil Environm & Geomat Engn, London, England.;HR Wallingford, Water Management Grp, Wallingford, Oxon, England..
    Brilly, Mitija
    Univ Ljubljana, Fac Civil Engn & Geodesy, Dept Environm Engn, Ljubljana, Slovenia..
    Viglione, Alberto
    Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Vienna, Austria..
    Bloeschl, Guenter
    Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Vienna, Austria..
    Sivapalan, Murugesu
    Hydrosyst Lab Univ Illinois Urbana Champaign, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Urbana, IL USA.;Hydrosyst Lab Univ Illinois Urbana Champaign, Dept Geog & Geog Informat Sci, Urbana, IL USA..
    Domeneghetti, Alessio
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy..
    Marinelli, Alberto
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, Bologna, Italy..
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Adaptation of water resources systems to changing society and environment: a statement by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 16, 2803-2817 p.Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We explore how to address the challenges of adaptation of water resources systems under changing conditions by supporting flexible, resilient and low-regret solutions, coupled with on-going monitoring and evaluation. This will require improved understanding of the linkages between biophysical and social aspects in order to better anticipate the possible future co-evolution of water systems and society. We also present a call to enhance the dialogue and foster the actions of governments, the international scientific community, research funding agencies and additional stakeholders in order to develop effective solutions to support water resources systems adaptation. Finally, we call the scientific community to a renewed and unified effort to deliver an innovative message to stakeholders. Water science is essential to resolve the water crisis, but the effectiveness of solutions depends, inter alia, on the capability of scientists to deliver a new, coherent and technical vision for the future development of water systems.

  • 4.
    Ciullo, Alessio
    et al.
    Deltares, Dept Flood Risk Management, Delft, Netherlands.;Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, DICAM, Bologna, Italy..
    Viglione, Alberto
    Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Vienna, Austria..
    Castellarin, Attilio
    Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, DICAM, Bologna, Italy..
    Crisci, Massimiliano
    Italian Natl Res Council CNR IRPPS, Inst Res Populat & Social Policies, Rome, Italy..
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Socio-hydrological modelling of flood-risk dynamics: comparing the resilience of green and technological systems2017In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 62, no 6, 880-891 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This work aims to provide a dynamic assessment of flood risk and community resilience by explicitly accounting for variable human behaviour, e.g. risk-taking and awareness-raising attitudes. We consider two different types of socio-hydrological systems: green systems, whereby societies deal with risk only via non-structural measures, and technological systems, whereby risk is dealt with also by structural measures, such as levees. A stylized model of human-flood interactions is first compared to real-world data collected at two test sites (People's Republic of Bangladesh and the city of Rome, Italy) and then used to explore plausible trajectories of flood risk. The results show that flood risk in technological systems tends to be significantly lower than in green systems. However, technological systems may undergo catastrophic events, which lead to much higher losses. Furthermore, green systems prove to be more resilient than technological ones, which makes them more capable of withstanding environmental and social changes.

  • 5. Davies, J.
    et al.
    Beven, Keith J.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Comparison of a Multiple Interacting Pathways model with a classical kinematic wave subsurface flow solution2012In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 57, no 2, 203-216 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A discrete random particle representation of flow processes on shallow hillslopes is compared with solutions of the classical kinematic wave representation. The discrete Multiple Interacting Pathways (MIPs) model has the potential to represent the effects of complex heterogeneities and preferential flow pathways. It is shown that, under shared assumptions, the MIPs model can produce equivalent flow predictions to a standard kinematic wave realization. The MIPs model is then used to further explore the relationship between celerity and water velocity by introducing a velocity distribution, which represents the range of possible flow pathways, and therefore is representative of the nature of heterogeneity (or lack of it within a homogeneous case) within the subsurface. It is shown that, whilst flux constraints can be satisfied with a distribution of flow velocities, it can result in changes to the hydrograph. Multiple pathways also have an influence on the residence times for input increments, output increments and storage in the system.

  • 6.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Beven, Keith
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions, unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human-water systems2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 9, 1748-1758 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the seventh facet of uncertainty, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don't know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don't know we don't know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don't know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human-water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human-water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

  • 7.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England.
    CASTELLARIN, A
    BRATH, A
    Analysis of the effects of levee heightening on flood propagation: example of the River Po, Italy2009In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 54, no 6, 1007-1017 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The effects of human activities on flood propagation, during the period 1878-2005, in a 190-km reach of the middle-lower portion of the River Po (Northern Italy) are investigated. A series of topographical, hydrological and inundation data were collected for the 1878 River Po geometry and the June 1879 flood event, characterised by an inundated area of 432 km(2). The aim of the study is two-fold: (1) to show the applicability of flood inundation models in reconstructing historical inundation events, and (2) to assess the effects of human activities during the last century on flood propagation in the middle-lower portion of the River Po. Numerical simulations were performed by coupling a two-dimensional finite element code, TELEMAC-2D, with a one-dimensional finite difference code, HEC-RAS.

  • 8.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education , NL-2601 DA Delft, The Netherlands.
    Elshamy, M
    van Griensven, A
    Soliman, E
    Kigobe, M
    Ndomba, P
    Mutemi, J
    Moges, S
    Xuan, Y Q
    Solomatine, D
    Uhlenbrook, S
    Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: a review2011In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 56, no 2, 199-211 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A critical discussion of recent studies that analysed the effects of climate change on the water resources of the River Nile Basin (RNB) is presented. First, current water-related issues on the RNB showing the particular vulnerability to environmental changes of this large territory are described. Second, observed trends in hydrological data (such as temperature, precipitation, river discharge) as described in the recent literature are presented. Third, recent modelling exercises to quantify the effects of climate changes on the RNB are critically analysed. The many sources of uncertainty affecting the entire modelling chain, including climate modelling, spatial and temporal downscaling, hydrological modelling and impact assessment are also discussed. In particular, two contrasting issues are discussed: the need to better recognize and characterize the uncertainty of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the RNB, and the necessity to effectively support decision-makers and propose suitable adaptation strategies and measures. The principles of a code of good practice in climate change impact studies based on the explicit handling of various sources of uncertainty are outlined.

  • 9. Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    et al.
    Schumann, Guy
    Bates, Paul D.
    Freer, Jim E.
    Beven, Keith J.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Flood-plain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches2010In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 55, no 3, 364-376 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed.

  • 10. Engeland, K.
    et al.
    Xu, Chong-yu
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air and Water Science.
    Gottschalk, L.
    Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology2005In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 50, no 1, 45-63 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 11.
    Fuentes-Andino, Diana
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences. Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS).
    Kauffeldt, Anna (Contributor)
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
    Xu, Chong-Yu (Contributor)
    Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano (Contributor)
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
    Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions2017In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 62, no 2, 232-245 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.

  • 12.
    Jägerskog, Anders
    et al.
    Stockholm Int Water Inst, Knowledge Serv, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Kim, Kyungmee
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Land acquisition: a means to mitigate water scarcity and reduce conflict?2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 7, 1338-1345 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In recent years there has been a surge in land investments, primarily in the African continent, but also in Asia and Latin America. This increase in land investment was driven by the food pricing crisis of 2007-2008. Land investors can be identified from a variety of sectors, with actors ranging from hedge funds to national companies. Many water-scarce countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are among these financiers, and primarily invest in Africa. Recognizing the potential for "outsourcing" their food security (and thereby also partly their water security), Middle Eastern countries such as Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have invested in land for food production in Africa. The extent to which this is happening is still unclear, as many contracts are not yet official and the extent of the leases is vague. This paper investigates the land investments and acquisitions by Middle Eastern countries. It also seeks to analyse what effect, if any, these investments can have on the potential for conflict reduction and subsequent peacebuilding in the Middle East region as the activity removes pressure from transboundary water resources.

  • 13. Kizza, Michael
    et al.
    Rodhe, Allan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Xu, Chong-Yu
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Ntale, Henry K.
    Modelling catchment inflows into Lake Victoria: uncertainties in rainfall-runoff modelling for the Nzoia River2011In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 56, no 7, 1210-1226 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate and soil characteristics vary considerably around the Lake Victoria basin resulting in high spatial and temporal variability in catchment inflows. However, data for estimating the inflows are usually sparsely distributed and error-prone. Therefore, modelled estimates of the flows are highly uncertain, which could explain early difficulties in reproducing the lake water balance. The aim of this study was to improve the estimates of catchment flow to Lake Victoria. The WASMOD model was applied to the Nzoia River, one of the major tributaries to Lake Victoria. Uncertainty was assessed within the GLUE framework. During calibration, log-transformation was performed on both simulated and observed flows. The results showed that, despite its simple structure, WASMOD produces acceptable results for the basin. For a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) threshold of 0.6, the percentage of observations bracketed by simulations (POBS) was 74%, the average relative interval length (ARIL) was 0.93, and the maximum NS value was 0.865. The residuals were shown to be homoscedastic, normally distributed and nearly independent. When the NS threshold was increased to 0.8, POBS decreased to 54% with an improvement of ARIL to 0.49, highlighting the effect of the subjective choice of likelihood threshold.

  • 14. Liu, Jintao
    et al.
    Chen, Xi
    Wu, Jichun
    Zhang, Xingnan
    Feng, Dezeng
    Xu, Chong-Yu
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Grid parameterization of a conceptual distributed hydrological model through integration of a sub-grid topographic index: necessity and practicability2012In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 57, no 2, 282-297 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Grid-based distributed models have become popular for describing spatial hydrological processes. However, the influence of non-homogeneity within a grid on streamflow simulation was not adequately addressed in the literature. In this study, we investigated how the statistical characteristics of soil moisture storage within a grid impacts on streamflow simulations. The spatial variation of the topographic index, TI, within a grid was used to determine parameter B of the statistical curve of soil moisture storage in the Xinanjiang model. For comparison of influences of the non-homogeneity within a grid on streamflow simulation, two parameterization schemes of soil moisture storage capacity were developed: a grid-parameterization scheme for a distributed model and a catchment-averaged scheme for a semi-distributed model. The practicability and usefulness of the grid-parameterization method were evaluated through model comparisons. The two models were applied in Jiangwan experimental catchment Zhejiang Province, China. Streamflow discharge data at the catchment outlet from 1971 to 1986 at different temporal resolutions, e. g. 15 min and daily time step, were used for model calibration and validation. Statistical results for different grid scales demonstrated that the mean and variation of TI and B decline significantly as the grid scale increases. The simulated streamflow discharges of the two models were similar and the semi-distributed model outperformed the distributed model slightly when the streamflow at the outlet of the catchment was used as the only basis for comparison. In addition, a relatively larger bias in the predicted discharges between these two models was observed along with an abrupt increase of soil moisture saturation ratio. A further analysis of the simulated soil moisture content distribution revealed that the distributed model can provide a reasonable representation of the variable source area concept, which was justified to some extent by the field experiment data.

  • 15.
    McMillan, Hilary
    et al.
    Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Christchurch, New Zealand.;San Diego State Univ, Dept Geog, San Diego, CA 92182 USA..
    Montanari, Alberto
    Univ Bologna, Dept DICAM, Bologna, Italy..
    Cudennec, Christophe
    INRA, Soil Agro & HydroSyst, UMR1069, Agrocampus Ouest, F-35042 Rennes, France..
    Savenije, Hubert
    Delft Univ Technol, Dept Water Management, Delft, Netherlands..
    Kreibich, Heidi
    German Res Ctr Geosci, Hydrol Sect, Potsdam, Germany..
    Krueger, Tobias
    Humboldt Univ, IRI THESys, D-10099 Berlin, Germany..
    Liu, Junguo
    South Univ Sci & Technol China, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China..
    Mejia, Alfonso
    Penn State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, University Pk, PA 16802 USA..
    Van Loon, Anne
    Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham, W Midlands, England..
    Aksoy, Hafzullah
    Istanbul Tech Univ, Dept Civil Engn, TR-80626 Istanbul, Turkey..
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Huang, Yan
    Changjiang Water Resources Commiss, Wuhan, Peoples R China..
    Mazvimavi, Dominc
    Univ Western Cape, Cape Town, South Africa..
    Rogger, Magdalena
    Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Managem, A-1040 Vienna, Austria..
    Sivakumar, Bellie
    Univ New S Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia.;Univ Calif Davis, Dept Land Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA 95616 USA..
    Bibikova, Tatiana
    Russian Acad Sci, Inst Geog, Dept Hydrol, Moscow V71, Russia..
    Castellarin, Attilio
    Univ Bologna, Dept DICAM, Bologna, Italy..
    Chen, Yangbo
    Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Geog & Planning, Lab Water Disaster Management & Hydroinfomat, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China..
    Finger, David
    Reykjavik Univ, Sch Sci & Engn, Reykjavik, Iceland..
    Gelfan, Alexander
    Russian Acad Sci, Water Problems Inst, Moscow, Russia..
    Hannah, David M.
    Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham, W Midlands, England..
    Hoekstra, Arjen Y.
    Univ Twente, Dept Water Engn & Management, POB 217, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands..
    Li, Hongyi
    US DOE, Pacific NW Natl Lab, Hydrol Tech Grp, Richland, WA USA..
    Maskey, Shreedhar
    UNESCO IHE Inst Water Educ, Dept Water Sci & Engn, Delft, Netherlands..
    Mathevet, Thibault
    EDF DTG Div Tech Gen, Grenoble, France..
    Mijic, Ana
    Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, England..
    Pedrozo Acuna, Adrian
    Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Engn, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico..
    Polo, Maria J.
    Univ Cordoba, Dept Hydraul Engn, Cordoba, Spain..
    Rosales, Victor
    Inst Mexicano Petr, Mexico City, DF, Mexico..
    Smith, Paul
    Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England..
    Viglione, Alberto
    Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Managem, A-1040 Vienna, Austria..
    Srinivasan, Veena
    Ashoka Trust Res Ecol & Environm, Bangalore, Karnataka, India..
    Toth, Elena
    Univ Bologna, Dept DICAM, Bologna, Italy..
    Van Nooyen, Ronald
    Delft Univ Technol, Dept Water Management, Delft, Netherlands..
    Xia, Jun
    Wuhan Univ, Res Inst Water Secur, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China..
    Panta Rhei 2013-2015: global perspectives on hydrology, society and change2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 7, 1174-1191 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2013, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) launched the hydrological decade 2013-2022 with the theme "Panta Rhei: Change in Hydrology and Society". The decade recognizes the urgency of hydrological research to understand and predict the interactions of society and water, to support sustainable water resource use under changing climatic and environmental conditions. This paper reports on the first Panta Rhei biennium 2013-2015, providing a comprehensive resource that describes the scope and direction of Panta Rhei. We bring together the knowledge of all the Panta Rhei working groups, to summarize the most pressing research questions and how the hydrological community is progressing towards those goals. We draw out interconnections between different strands of research, and reflect on the need to take a global view on hydrology in the current era of human impacts and environmental change. Finally, we look back to the six driving science questions identified at the outset of Panta Rhei, to quantify progress towards those aims.

  • 16. Mo, X G
    et al.
    Pappenberger, F
    Beven, Keith
    Institute of Environmental and Natural Sciences, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK.
    Liu, S X
    De Roo, A
    Lin, Z H
    Parameter conditioning and prediction uncertainties of the LISFLOOD-WB distributed hydrological model2006In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 51, no 1, 45-65 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Distributed hydrological models are considered to be a promising tool for predicting the impacts of global change oil the hydrological processes at the basin scale. However, distributed models typically require values of many parameters to be specified or calibrated, which exacerbates model prediction uncertainty. This study uses the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) technique to analyse the parameter sensitivities of a distributed hydrological model, LISFLOOD-WB. Discharge time series and event volume data of the Luo River at upstream and downstream sites, Lingkou and Lushi, are used to analyse parameter uncertainty. Eight key parameters in the model are selected for conditioning and sampled using the Monte Carlo method under assumed prior distributions. The results show that maximum efficiency of model performance is lower and the number of behavioural parameter sets giving acceptable performance is fewer in the Lingkou sub-basin than in the Lushi sub-basin with the same criteria of acceptability. For both sub-basins the distribution shape parameter B in the fast runoff generation scheme is the most sensitive in predicting both discharge time series and event volume at the Outlet. It is also shown that the value of parameter B at which the highest efficiency is derived is shifted from a high value for Lushi to a low value for Lingkou, consistent with past experience of model calibration that the larger the basin, the larger the B value is. The channel Manning coefficient N-c shows some sensitivity in the prediction of discharge time series, but less in the prediction of event volumes. The other key parameters show little sensitivity and good simulations are found across the full range of parameter values sampled. The uncertainty bounds of predicted discharges at the Lushi sub-basin are broad in the peak and narrow in the recession. The normalized difference between the upper and lower uncertainty bounds for both discharge and evapotranspiration are broad in summer and narrow in winter and that of recharge is the opposite.

  • 17. Montanari, A.
    et al.
    Young, G.
    Savenije, H. H. G.
    Hughes, D.
    Wagener, T.
    Ren, L. L.
    Koutsoyiannis, D.
    Cudennec, C.
    Toth, E.
    Grimaldi, S.
    Bloeschl, G.
    Sivapalan, M.
    Beven, Keith J.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Gupta, H.
    Hipsey, M.
    Schaefli, B.
    Arheimer, B.
    Boegh, E.
    Schymanski, S. J.
    Di Baldassarre, G.
    Yu, B.
    Hubert, P.
    Huang, Y.
    Schumann, A.
    Post, D. A.
    Srinivasan, V.
    Harman, C.
    Thompson, S.
    Rogger, M.
    Viglione, A.
    McMillan, H.
    Characklis, G.
    Pang, Z.
    Belyaev, V.
    "Panta Rhei-Everything Flows": Change in hydrology and society-The IAHS Scientific Decade 2013-20222013In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 58, no 6, 1256-1275 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The new Scientific Decade 2013-2022 of IAHS, entitled Panta RheiEverything Flows, is dedicated to research activities on change in hydrology and society. The purpose of Panta Rhei is to reach an improved interpretation of the processes governing the water cycle by focusing on their changing dynamics in connection with rapidly changing human systems. The practical aim is to improve our capability to make predictions of water resources dynamics to support sustainable societal development in a changing environment. The concept implies a focus on hydrological systems as a changing interface between environment and society, whose dynamics are essential to determine water security, human safety and development, and to set priorities for environmental management. The Scientific Decade 2013-2022 will devise innovative theoretical blueprints for the representation of processes including change and will focus on advanced monitoring and data analysis techniques. Interdisciplinarity will be sought by increased efforts to connect with the socio-economic sciences and geosciences in general. This paper presents a summary of the Science Plan of Panta Rhei, its targets, research questions and expected outcomes.

  • 18. Mukolwe, Micah
    et al.
    Yan, Kun
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Solomatine, Dimitri
    Testing new sources of topographic data for flood propagation modelling under structural, parameter and observation uncertainty2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 9, 1707-1715 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study assessed the utility of EUDEM, a recently released digital elevation model, to support flood inundation modelling. To this end, a comparison with other topographic data sources was performed (i.e. LIDAR, light detection and ranging; SRTM, Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) on a 98-km reach of the River Po, between Cremona and Borgoforte (Italy). This comparison was implemented using different model structures while explicitly accounting for uncertainty in model parameters and upstream boundary conditions. This approach facilitated a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty associated with hydraulic modelling of floods. For this test site, our results showed that the flood inundation models built on coarse resolutions data (EUDEM and SRTM) and simple one-dimensional model structure performed well during model evaluation.

  • 19. Ridolfi, Elena
    et al.
    Alfonso, Leonardo
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Dottori, Francesco
    Russo, F
    Napolitano, F
    An entropy approach for the optimization of cross-section spacing for river modelling2014In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 59, no 1, 126-137 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 20.
    Seibert, J.
    et al.
    Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Switzerland.
    McDonnell, Jeffrey J.
    Department of Forest Engineering, Resources and Management, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon,, USA.
    Land-cover impacts on streamflow: a change-detection modelling approach that incorporates parameter uncertainty2010In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 55, no 3, 316-332 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The effect of land-use or land-cover change on stream runoff dynamics is not fully understood. In many parts of the world, forest management is the major land-cover change agent. While the paired catchment approach has been the primary methodology used to quantify such effects, it is only possible for small headwater catchments where there is uniformity in precipitation inputs and catchment characteristics between the treatment and control catchments. This paper presents a model-based change-detection approach that includes model and parameter uncertainty as an alternative to the traditional paired-catchment method for larger catchments. We use the HBV model and data from the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon, USA, to develop and test the approach on two small (< 1 km(2)) headwater catchments (a 100% clear-cut and a control) and then apply the technique to the larger 62 km(2) Lookout catchment. Three different approaches are used to detect changes in stream peak flows using: (a) calibration for a period before (or after) change and simulation of runoff that would have been observed without land-cover changes (reconstruction of runoff series); (b) comparison of calibrated parameter values for periods before and after a land-cover change; and (c) comparison of runoff predicted with parameter sets calibrated for periods before and after a land-cover change. Our proof-of-concept change detection modelling showed that peak flows increased in the clear-cut headwater catchment, relative to the headwater control catchment, and several parameter values in the model changed after the clear-cutting. Some minor changes were also detected in the control, illustrating the problem of false detections. For the larger Lookout catchment, moderately increased peak flows were detected. Monte Carlo techniques used to quantify parameter uncertainty and compute confidence intervals in model results and parameter ranges showed rather wide distributions of model simulations. While this makes change detection more difficult, it also demonstrated the need to explicitly consider parameter uncertainty in the modelling approach to obtain reliable results.

  • 21.
    Swain, Ashok
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, För teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten gemensamma enheter, Uppsala Centre for Sustainable Development.
    Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing geo-politics and changing climate2011In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 56, no 4, 687-702 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    For most of the 20th century, the Nile River has been the source of political tensions and low-intensity conflicts among three of its major riparian countries (Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt). However, since the late 1990s, the Nile basin countries-with the encouragement and support of the international community-have made some attempts to establish basin-wide cooperative institutions. This process of engagement and collaboration is presently under severe stress due to increasing demand and decreasing supply of water resources in the basin. This situation may be complicated further by the global climate change, which is anticipated to result in long-term changes in the volume and pattern of runoff in the Nile River system. Moreover, the emergence of China as a major player in the power politics of the Nile basin has facilitated a number of unilateral initiatives for large-scale water development projects. In this context, this paper critically examines the survival and sustainability of water cooperation endeavours in the Nile basin as the river faces challenges from the global climate change and shifting regional geo-politics.

  • 22.
    Swain, Ashok
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala Centre for Sustainable Development, CSD Uppsala.
    Water and post-conflict peacebuilding2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 7, 1313-1322 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Water-management issues cut across all sectors of governance and have a critical bearing on many post-conflict challenges. The imperative of adequate water supply and the weakness of the state in a post-conflict period provide a nexus which demands comprehensive and well thought-out policy planning, for the short term as well as for the long term. However, very little research has been conducted on the nexus between water management and sustainable development in war-torn societies that are undergoing processes of peacebuilding. This article, after critically reviewing the contribution of water scarcity to security challenges and peacemaking, makes an attempt to contribute to the policy debate on how carefully planned interventions in the water sector can significantly contribute to the post-conflict peacebuilding process, from immediate recovery and rebuilding to long-term sustainable development goals and lasting peace.

  • 23.
    Swain, Ashok
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Water and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 16, no 7, 1313-1322 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 24. Uhlenbrook, Stefan
    et al.
    Seibert, Jan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
    Leibundgut, Christian
    Rodhe, Allan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
    Prediction uncertainty of conceptual rainfall-runoff models caused by problems in identifying model parameters and structure1999In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 44, no 5, 779-797 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The uncertainties arising from the problem of identifying a representative model structure and model parameters in a conceptual rainfall-runoff model were investigated. A conceptual model, the HBV model; was applied to the mountainous Brugga basin (39.9 km(2)) in the Black Forest, southwestern Germany. In a first step, a Monte Carlo procedure with randomly generated parameter sets was used for calibration. For a ten-year calibration period, different parameter sets resulted in an equally good correspondence between observed and simulated runoff. A few parameters were well defined (i.e, best parameter values were within small ranges), but for most parameters good simulations were found with values varying over wide ranges. In a second step, model variants with different numbers of elevation and landuse zones and various runoff generation conceptualizations were tested. In some cases, representation of more spatial variability gave better simulations in term of discharge. However, good results could be obtained with different and even unrealistic concepts. The computation of design floods and low flow predictions illustrated that the parameter uncertainty and the uncertainty of identifying a unique best model variant have implications for model predictions. The flow predictions varied considerably. The peak discharge of a flood with a probability of 0.01 year(-1), for instance, varied from 40 to almost 60 mm day(-1). It was concluded that model predictions, particularly in applied studies, should be given as ranges rather than as single values.

  • 25.
    Westerberg, Ida K.
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environm Res Inst, Stockholm, Sweden.;Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol, Avon, England.;Ctr Nat Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Beven, Keith J.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England..
    Coxon, Gemma
    Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England..
    Krueger, Tobias
    Humboldt Univ, IRI THESys, Berlin, Germany..
    Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example2017In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 62, no 11, 1705-1713 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis.Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources - and different perceptions thereof - explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.

  • 26. Zhang, Qiang
    et al.
    Chen, Guiya
    Su, Buda
    Disse, Marcus
    Jiang, Tong
    Xu, Chong-Yu
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Periodicity of sediment load and runoff in the Yangtze River basin and possible impacts of climatic changes and human activities2008In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 53, no 2, 457-465 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Periodicity of the runoff and the sediment load, and possible impacts from human activities and climatic changes, in the Yangtze River basin during 1963-2004 are discussed based oil the monthly sediment and runoff data, and using the wavelet approach. Research results indicated that: (a) Sediment load changes are severely impacted by the different types of human activity (e.g. construction of water reservoirs, deforestation/afforestation); and the runoff variability is the direct result of climatic changes, e.g. the precipitation changes. (b) The impacts of human activity and climatic changes on the sediment load and runoff changes are greater in smaller river basins (e.g. the Jialingjiang River basin) than in larger river basins. The response of sediment load and runoff changes to the impacts of human activities and climatic changes are prompt and prominent in the Jialingjiang River basin relative to those in the mainstem of the Yangtze River basin. (c) Construction of the Three Gorges Dam has already had obvious impacts on the sediment transport process in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, but shows no obvious influence on the runoff changes. Construction of the Three Gorges Dam will result in further re-adjustment of the scouring/filling process within the river channel in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, and have corresponding effects on the altered sediment load because of the Dam’s operation for the river channel, ecology, Sustainable social economy and even the development of the Yangtze Delta. This will be of concern to local governments and policy makers.

  • 27.
    Zhang, Qiang
    et al.
    Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
    Xu, Chong-Yu
    Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway.
    Chen, Yongqin David
    Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, China.
    Variability of water levels and impacts of streamflow changes and human activity within the Pearl River Delta, China2010In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, Vol. 55, no 4, 512-525 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is a complicated criss-cross river network. The booming economy and intensifying human activity have greatly altered the natural water levels, which threatens regional sustainable development. The Mann-Kendall trend test and the kriging interpolation method were used to detect the spatial and temporal patterns in the trends of extreme high/low water levels related to different magnitudes of streamflow, in order to explore the impacts of hydrological processes on the water-level changes throughout the PRD. The results indicate that: (a) streamflow changes at the Sanshui and Makou stations exhibit different characteristics. No significant trend can be identified in the streamflow changes at Makou station; however, the streamflow at Sanshui station shows a significant increasing trend, especially in low-flow periods. The decreasing Makou/Sanshui streamflow ratio exerts tremendous impacts on the water-level changes in the hinterland of the PRD region. (b) Extreme high/low water levels exhibit similar changing patterns. The extreme high/low water levels in the high/normal flow periods are decreasing in both the upper PRD and the hinterland of the PRD region. Increasing extreme high/low water levels in low-flow periods can be identified in the hinterland of the PRD region. The coastal regions are characterized by increasing extreme high/low water levels. (c) Extreme high/low water levels for high/normal flow periods in the hinterland of the PRD are heavily impacted by topographic changes due to in-channel dredging. Increasing extreme high/low water levels along the coastal regions are mainly backwater effects caused by serious siltation and rising sea level. This study has scientific and practical merits in regional fluvial management and mitigation of natural hazards.

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